Brann 3–0 Rosenborg: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Brann

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rosenborg

N. Castro 74'

A. Heggebø 49'

O. Didrik Blomberg 3'

5/4/2024

Eliteserien · Round 6Brann Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Brann55%

×Draw22%

Rosenborg23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BrannExpected goals in this matchRosenborg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.23

Brann

2.00

Rosenborg

1.23

Brann creates 63% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

2.12

creates per match

1.41

1.06

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Brann

2.12

Rosenborg

1.41

allows per match

Brann

1.06

Rosenborg

1.88

+0.08on par

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Brann+0.08on par

Rosenborg-0.01on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brann ↓

Rosenborg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Brann or draw

77%

Brann or Rosenborg

78%

Draw or Rosenborg

45%

Winning margin

Brann wins by 2+

32%

Rosenborg wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Brann 1+ goals

86%

Brann 2+ goals

59%

Brann 3+ goals

32%

Rosenborg 1+ goals

71%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

35%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Brann (draw refunded)

70%

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brann at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.06 · 30 matches

Rosenborg away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.88 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brann attack 2.12 + Rosenborg defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.00

Rosenborg attack 1.41 + Brann defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Brann scores more

55%

level

22%

Rosenborg scores more

23%

Brann at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Brann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

S. Crone

Brann · D

8.2

Match Events

3'

O. Didrik Blomberg↳ E. Kornvig

35'

Ulrik Jenssen

46'

N. Castro← U. Mathisen

46'

A. Pereira← U. Yttergård Jenssen

47'

Aune Selland Heggebø

49'

A. Heggebø↳ N. Castro

61'

M. Broholm← E. Frederiksen

61'

S. Väänänen← O. Sæter

71'

J. Nelson← J. Reitan-Sunde

74'

N. Castro↳ S. Crone

82'

M. Warming← A. Heggebø

82'

S. Kartum← F. Myhre

83'

L. Cornic← E. Reitan

86'

Jayden Nelson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BrannRosenborg

Overview

65%Possession35%

25Total Shots9

4.57Expected Goals (xG)1.04

10Corners2

9Fouls13

Shots

25Total Shots9

8On Target2

8Off Target4

9Blocked3

21Inside Box5

4Outside Box4

Passing

65%Possession35%

606Total Passes329

513Accurate Passes247

85%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1