Rosario Central 1–0 Platense: Result & Stats

Rosario Central

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Platense

A. Veliz 51'

10/19/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 13Estadio Gigante de Arroyito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Rosario Central47%

×Draw31%

Platense22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rosario CentralExpected goals in this matchPlatense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.71

Rosario Central

1.19

Platense

0.71

Rosario Central creates 68% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

1.04

creates per match

0.80

0.62

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Rosario Central

1.04

Platense

0.80

allows per match

Rosario Central

0.62

Platense

1.33

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Rosario Central+0.29scores more

Platense+0.28scores more

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosario Central ↓

Platense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Rosario Central or draw

78%

Rosario Central or Platense

69%

Draw or Platense

53%

Winning margin

Rosario Central wins by 2+

21%

Platense wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Rosario Central 1+ goals

70%

Rosario Central 2+ goals

33%

Rosario Central 3+ goals

12%

Platense 1+ goals

51%

Platense 2+ goals

16%

Platense 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Rosario Central (draw refunded)

68%

Platense (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosario Central at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.62 · 18 matches

Platense away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.33 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosario Central attack 1.04 + Platense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.19

Platense attack 0.80 + Rosario Central defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rosario Central scores more

47%

level

31%

Platense scores more

22%

Rosario Central at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rosario Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

J. Komar

Rosario Central · D

7.7

Match Events

49'

Bautista Barros Schelotto

51'

A. Veliz↳ E. Gimenez

60'

T. Silva← B. Barros Schelotto

60'

M. Luna Diale← F. Zapiola

62'

Jaminton Campaz

71'

M. Rodriguez← R. Martinez

79'

Agustín Sández

82'

F. Navarro← J. Campaz

88'

E. Copetti← E. Gimenez

88'

F. Baldassarra← R. Herrera

90+3'

J. M. Elordi← A. Di Maria

90+3'

A. Modica← A. Veliz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RosarioPlatense

Overview

52%Possession48%

9Total Shots12

1.04Expected Goals (xG)0.44

6Corners2

9Fouls15

Shots

9Total Shots12

2On Target2

3Off Target7

4Blocked3

8Inside Box4

1Outside Box8

Passing

52%Possession48%

402Total Passes375

315Accurate Passes266

78%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

0.01Goals Prevented0.01

Discipline

9Fouls15

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides3