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Rosario Central vs Platense — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Rosario Central
Rosario Central
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Platense
Platense
T. O'Connor 90+2'
A. Véliz 66'
J. Campaz 20'
V. Malcorra 12' (pen)
5/7/2023Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · Round 15Estadio Gigante de Arroyito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Rosario Central47%
×Draw31%
Platense22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosario Central
1.19
Platense
0.71

Rosario Central creates 68% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

creates per match

Rosario Central
1.04
Platense
0.80

allows per match

Rosario Central
0.62
Platense
1.33

finishing

Rosario Central+0.29scores more
Platense+0.28scores more

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosario Central ↓

Platense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Rosario Central or draw
78%
Rosario Central or Platense
69%
Draw or Platense
53%

Winning margin

Rosario Central wins by 2+
21%
Platense wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rosario Central 1+ goals
70%
Rosario Central 2+ goals
33%
Rosario Central 3+ goals
12%
Platense 1+ goals
51%
Platense 2+ goals
16%
Platense 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Rosario Central (draw refunded)
68%
Platense (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosario Central at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.62 · 18 matches

Platense away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.33 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosario Central attack 1.04 + Platense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.19

Platense attack 0.80 + Rosario Central defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rosario Central scores more
47%
level
31%
Platense scores more
22%

Rosario Central at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rosario Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
J. CampazRosario CentralRosario Central · M
8.0

Match Events

4'
Gastón Suso
7'
Kevin Ortíz
7'
Ignacio Vazquez
12'
V. MalcorraPenalty
16'
Carlos Quintana
20'
J. Campaz↳ K. Ortíz
40'
Ignacio Malcorra
58'
F. Mac Allister← W. Montoya
62'
A. Sabella← I. Rossi
62'
G. Valdivia← S. Marcich
62'
R. Martínez← N. Servetto
66'
A. Véliz↳ L. Giaccone
79'
F. Aguero← C. Quintana
79'
T. O'Connor← L. Giaccone
86'
I. Schor← N. Morgantini
88'
L. Ferreyra← V. Malcorra
88'
J. Candia← A. Véliz
90+2'
Luciano Ferreyra
90+2'
T. O'Connor↳ J. Candia

Possession

51%Rosario

Shots

10Rosario

Pass accuracy

50%Rosario

Statistics

RosarioPlatense
Overview
51%Possession49%
10Total Shots14
6Corners3
7Fouls9
Shots
10Total Shots14
7On Target4
2Off Target5
1Blocked5
6Inside Box2
4Outside Box12
Passing
51%Possession49%
322Total Passes293
237Accurate Passes218
74%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls9
4Yellow Cards2
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Rosario Central vs Platense

Rosario Central beat Platense 4-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on May 7, 2023.

Goals: V. Malcorra (12' pen), J. Campaz (20'), A. Véliz (66'), T. O'Connor (90+2').

Rosario Central controlled possession (51%) and registered 10 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Gigante de Arroyito in Rosario, Provincia de Santa Fe.