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Rosario Central vs Platense — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Rosario Central
Rosario Central
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Platense
Platense
F. Buonanotte 45+7'
R. González 14'
9/25/2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 21Estadio Gigante de Arroyito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Rosario Central47%
×Draw31%
Platense22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosario Central
1.19
Platense
0.71

Rosario Central creates 68% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 13 away

creates per match

Rosario Central
1.04
Platense
0.80

allows per match

Rosario Central
0.62
Platense
1.33

finishing

Rosario Central+0.29scores more
Platense+0.28scores more

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosario Central ↓

Platense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Rosario Central or draw
78%
Rosario Central or Platense
69%
Draw or Platense
53%

Winning margin

Rosario Central wins by 2+
21%
Platense wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rosario Central 1+ goals
70%
Rosario Central 2+ goals
33%
Rosario Central 3+ goals
12%
Platense 1+ goals
51%
Platense 2+ goals
16%
Platense 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Rosario Central (draw refunded)
68%
Platense (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosario Central at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.62 · 18 matches

Platense away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.33 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosario Central attack 1.04 + Platense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.19

Platense attack 0.80 + Rosario Central defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rosario Central scores more
47%
level
31%
Platense scores more
22%

Rosario Central at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rosario Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40
F. BuonanotteRosario CentralRosario Central · M
8.2

Match Events

14'
R. González
29'
Damián Martínez
34'
Gastón Suso
34'
Carlos Villalba
36'
‪Ignacio Schor
44'
J. Candia← V. Malcorra
45+4'
Alejo VelizGoal cancelled
45+9'
J. Infante← H. Ruiz Díaz
45+7'
F. Buonanotte↳ J. Báez
46'
R. Contreras← M. Zárate
46'
J. Esquivel← I. Schor
58'
M. Tanlongo← F. Mac Allister
58'
G. Infantino← A. Véliz
58'
J. Mazzaco← F. Rodríguez
66'
Carlos Villalba
66'
Carlos Villalba
68'
F. Gino← A. Costa
71'
I. Cortez← D. Martínez
75'
Mateo Tanlongo
87'
A. Sabella← H. Tijanovich
90+1'
Christian Javier Báez

Possession

64%Rosario

Shots

20Rosario

Pass accuracy

56%Rosario

Statistics

RosarioPlatense
Overview
64%Possession36%
20Total Shots8
13Corners6
21Fouls10
Shots
20Total Shots8
6On Target2
9Off Target4
5Blocked2
13Inside Box4
7Outside Box4
Passing
64%Possession36%
389Total Passes231
303Accurate Passes144
78%Pass Accuracy62%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
21Fouls10
3Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
2Offsides0

Liga Profesional Argentina: Rosario Central 1–1 Platense

Rosario Central and Platense drew 1-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on September 25, 2022.

Goals: R. González (14'), F. Buonanotte (45+7').

Rosario Central controlled possession (64%) and registered 20 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Gigante de Arroyito in Rosario, Provincia de Santa Fe.