Rosario Central 3–0 Instituto Cordoba

Rosario Central

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Instituto Cordoba

E. Copetti 90'

G. Duarte 68'

S. Lopez 8'

4/20/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 14Estadio Gigante de Arroyito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Rosario Central41%

×Draw32%

Instituto Cordoba27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rosario CentralExpected goals in this matchInstituto Cordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.78

Rosario Central

1.04

Instituto Cordoba

0.78

Rosario Central creates 33% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 14 away

1.04

creates per match

0.95

0.62

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Rosario Central

1.04

Instituto Cordoba

0.95

allows per match

Rosario Central

0.62

Instituto Cordoba

1.05

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

Rosario Central+0.29scores more

Instituto Cordoba-0.31scores less

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosario Central ↓

Instituto Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Rosario Central or draw

73%

Rosario Central or Instituto Cordoba

68%

Draw or Instituto Cordoba

59%

Winning margin

Rosario Central wins by 2+

16%

Instituto Cordoba wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Rosario Central 1+ goals

65%

Rosario Central 2+ goals

28%

Rosario Central 3+ goals

9%

Instituto Cordoba 1+ goals

54%

Instituto Cordoba 2+ goals

18%

Instituto Cordoba 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Rosario Central (draw refunded)

60%

Instituto Cordoba (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosario Central at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.62 · 18 matches

Instituto Cordoba away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.05 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosario Central attack 1.04 + Instituto Cordoba defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Instituto Cordoba attack 0.95 + Rosario Central defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rosario Central scores more

41%

level

32%

Instituto Cordoba scores more

27%

Rosario Central at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rosario Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

A. Sandez

Rosario Central · D

8.2

Match Events

8'

S. Lopez↳ L. Giaccone

17'

24'

37'

45+1'

57'

58'

G. Duarte← L. Giaccone

58'

E. Copetti← S. Ferreira

60'

61'

66'

68'

73'

73'

F. Diaz← F. Mac Allister

84'

J. M. Elordi← J. Campaz

84'

K. Ortiz← F. Ibarra

90'

E. Copetti↳ E. Coronel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RosarioInstituto

Overview

48%Possession52%

19Total Shots14

2Corners4

13Fouls9

Shots

19Total Shots14

8On Target0

10Off Target8

1Blocked6

11Inside Box6

8Outside Box8

Passing

48%Possession52%

349Total Passes380

283Accurate Passes304

81%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls9

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Rosario Central vs Instituto Cordoba

Rosario Central beat Instituto Cordoba 3-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on April 20, 2025.

Goals: S. Lopez (8'), G. Duarte (68'), E. Copetti (90').

Instituto Cordoba controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 19.

The match was played at Estadio Gigante de Arroyito in Rosario.

Rosario Central vs Instituto Cordoba — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Rosario Central vs Instituto Cordoba