Instituto Cordoba 1–3 Rosario Central

Instituto Cordoba

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Rosario Central

J. E. Cordoba Mosquera 36'

I. Ovando 67'

A. Di Maria 64' (pen)

I. Malcorra 38'

11/1/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 14Estadio Presidente Peron

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Instituto Cordoba42%

×Draw31%

Rosario Central27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Instituto CordobaExpected goals in this matchRosario Central

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.84

Instituto Cordoba

1.13

Rosario Central

0.84

Instituto Cordoba creates 35% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

1.17

creates per match

0.91

0.77

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Instituto Cordoba

1.17

Rosario Central

0.91

allows per match

Instituto Cordoba

0.77

Rosario Central

1.08

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Instituto Cordoba-0.11scores less

Rosario Central-0.08on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Instituto Cordoba ↓

Rosario Central →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Instituto Cordoba or draw

73%

Instituto Cordoba or Rosario Central

69%

Draw or Rosario Central

58%

Winning margin

Instituto Cordoba wins by 2+

18%

Rosario Central wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Instituto Cordoba 1+ goals

68%

Instituto Cordoba 2+ goals

31%

Instituto Cordoba 3+ goals

11%

Rosario Central 1+ goals

57%

Rosario Central 2+ goals

21%

Rosario Central 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Instituto Cordoba (draw refunded)

61%

Rosario Central (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Instituto Cordoba at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.77 · 16 matches

Rosario Central away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.08 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Instituto Cordoba attack 1.17 + Rosario Central defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Rosario Central attack 0.91 + Instituto Cordoba defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Instituto Cordoba scores more

42%

level

31%

Rosario Central scores more

27%

Instituto Cordoba at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Instituto Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

I. Malcorra

Rosario Central · M

7.9

Match Events

30'

Franco Ibarra

32'

F. Navarro← F. Ibarra

34'

Emanuel Beltrán

36'

J. E. Cordoba Mosquera

38'

I. Malcorra↳ A. Veliz

42'

Ignacio Méndez

46'

G. Duarte← S. Lopez

55'

I. Ovando← J. Komar

59'

J. Romero← M. Klimowicz

64'

A. Di MariaPenalty

66'

Manuel Romero

67'

I. Ovando↳ A. Di Maria

79'

M. Gallardo← J. Mendez

79'

M. Fonseca← L. Rodriguez

84'

Alejo VélizGoal cancelled

87'

Federico Navarro

88'

E. Gimenez← J. Campaz

88'

E. Copetti← A. Di Maria

90+1'

Ignacio Malcorra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InstitutoRosario

Overview

49%Possession51%

24Total Shots6

2.03Expected Goals (xG)2.01

6Corners0

9Fouls9

Shots

24Total Shots6

5On Target3

7Off Target3

12Blocked0

12Inside Box5

12Outside Box1

Passing

49%Possession51%

335Total Passes366

265Accurate Passes297

79%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

0.56Goals Prevented0.56

Discipline

9Fouls9

3Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Instituto Cordoba vs Rosario Central

Rosario Central beat Instituto Cordoba 3-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on November 1, 2025.

Goals: J. E. Cordoba Mosquera (36'), I. Malcorra (38'), A. Di Maria (64' pen), I. Ovando (67').

Rosario Central controlled possession (51%) and registered 6 shots to 24.

The match was played at Estadio Presidente Peron in Cordoba.

Instituto Cordoba vs Rosario Central — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Instituto Cordoba vs Rosario Central