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Instituto Cordoba vs Rosario Central — League #1032 2026

Instituto Cordoba
Instituto Cordoba
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rosario Central
Rosario Central
10/25/2023League #1032League #1032 · 2nd Phase - 10Estadio Juan Domingo Perón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Instituto Cordoba55%
×Draw28%
Rosario Central17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Instituto Cordoba
1.37
Rosario Central
0.62

Instituto Cordoba creates 121% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

creates per match

Instituto Cordoba
0.86
Rosario Central
0.38

allows per match

Instituto Cordoba
0.86
Rosario Central
1.88

finishing

Instituto Cordoba+0.00on par
Rosario Central+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Instituto Cordoba ↓

Rosario Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Instituto Cordoba or draw
83%
Instituto Cordoba or Rosario Central
72%
Draw or Rosario Central
45%

Winning margin

Instituto Cordoba wins by 2+
27%
Rosario Central wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Instituto Cordoba 1+ goals
75%
Instituto Cordoba 2+ goals
40%
Instituto Cordoba 3+ goals
16%
Rosario Central 1+ goals
46%
Rosario Central 2+ goals
13%
Rosario Central 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Instituto Cordoba (draw refunded)
77%
Rosario Central (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Instituto Cordoba at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Rosario Central away — creates 0.38, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Instituto Cordoba attack 0.86 + Rosario Central defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.37

Rosario Central attack 0.38 + Instituto Cordoba defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Instituto Cordoba scores more
55%
level
28%
Rosario Central scores more
17%

Instituto Cordoba at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Instituto Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
L. RodríguezInstituto CordobaInstituto Cordoba · D
7.7

Match Events

6'
K. Ortiz
13'
Jaminton Campaz
15'
G. Rodríguez← L. Albertengo
22'
M. Romero← N. Linares
44'
G. Cerato
46'
L. Martínez Dupuy← A. Cervera
64'
J. Komar← F. Mallo
68'
J. Acevedo
81'
D. Quiñonez← T. OConnor
83'
F. Oviedo← J. Campaz
83'
F. Lo Celso← V. Malcorra
87'
R. Bochi← G. Graciani
87'
N. Barrientos← J. Acevedo

Possession

47%Instituto

Shots

11Instituto

Pass accuracy

49%Instituto

Statistics

InstitutoRosario
Overview
47%Possession53%
11Total Shots9
2Corners6
16Fouls9
Shots
11Total Shots9
3On Target1
5Off Target3
3Blocked5
7Inside Box2
4Outside Box7
Passing
47%Possession53%
295Total Passes332
194Accurate Passes233
66%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls9
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Instituto Cordoba vs Rosario Central

Instituto Cordoba and Rosario Central drew 0-0 in League #1032 on October 25, 2023.

Rosario Central controlled possession (53%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Domingo Perón in Ciudad de Córdoba, Provincia de Córdoba.