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Rosario Central vs Instituto Cordoba — League #1032 2026

Rosario Central
Rosario Central
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Instituto Cordoba
Instituto Cordoba
T. O'Connor 52'
3/10/2024League #1032League #1032 · 1st Phase - 10Estadio Gigante de Arroyito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Rosario Central36%
×Draw31%
Instituto Cordoba33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosario Central
1.00
Instituto Cordoba
0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Rosario Central
1.25
Instituto Cordoba
1.25

allows per match

Rosario Central
0.63
Instituto Cordoba
0.75

finishing

Rosario Central+0.00on par
Instituto Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosario Central ↓

Instituto Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Rosario Central or draw
67%
Rosario Central or Instituto Cordoba
69%
Draw or Instituto Cordoba
64%

Winning margin

Rosario Central wins by 2+
14%
Instituto Cordoba wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rosario Central 1+ goals
63%
Rosario Central 2+ goals
26%
Rosario Central 3+ goals
8%
Instituto Cordoba 1+ goals
61%
Instituto Cordoba 2+ goals
24%
Instituto Cordoba 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rosario Central (draw refunded)
52%
Instituto Cordoba (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosario Central at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Instituto Cordoba away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosario Central attack 1.25 + Instituto Cordoba defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.00

Instituto Cordoba attack 1.25 + Rosario Central defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Rosario Central scores more
36%
level
31%
Instituto Cordoba scores more
33%

Rosario Central at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Rosario Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
J. BrounRosario CentralRosario Central · G
7.3

Match Events

38'
G. A. Lodico
43'
C. Quintana
52'
T. O'Connor↳ J. Campaz
55'
S. Rodríguez← J. Acevedo
72'
J. Franco
73'
C. Quintana
73'
C. Quintana
73'
I. Russo← R. Bochi
73'
G. Cerato← J. Franco
75'
J. Komar← M. Lovera
75'
S. Romero← B. Cuello
81'
F. Ibarra← T. OConnor
82'
A. Cervera← A. Hernández
83'
A. Rodríguez← J. Campaz
90+4'
V. Cabrera
90+5'
S. Rodriguez
90+5'
I. Malcorra
90+6'
F. Mallo Blanco

Possession

49%Rosario

Shots

12Rosario

Pass accuracy

50%Rosario

Statistics

RosarioInstituto
Overview
49%Possession51%
12Total Shots14
3Corners8
7Fouls11
Shots
12Total Shots14
4On Target1
7Off Target9
1Blocked4
9Inside Box10
3Outside Box4
Passing
49%Possession51%
353Total Passes355
282Accurate Passes279
80%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
7Fouls11
4Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards0
0Offsides1

League #1032: Rosario Central 1–0 Instituto Cordoba

Rosario Central beat Instituto Cordoba 1-0 in League #1032 on March 10, 2024.

Goals: T. O'Connor (52').

Instituto Cordoba controlled possession (51%) and registered 14 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Gigante de Arroyito in Rosario, Provincia de Santa Fe.