Rosario Central 1–1 Deportivo Riestra

Rosario Central

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Riestra

A. Veliz 8'

J. Herrera 89' (pen)

8/16/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 5Estadio Gigante de Arroyito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Rosario Central48%

×Draw31%

Deportivo Riestra21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rosario CentralExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Riestra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.65

Rosario Central

1.15

Deportivo Riestra

0.65

Rosario Central creates 77% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

1.04

creates per match

0.68

0.62

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Rosario Central

1.04

Deportivo Riestra

0.68

allows per match

Rosario Central

0.62

Deportivo Riestra

1.25

+0.29scores more than expected

finishing

+0.01on par

finishing

Rosario Central+0.29scores more

Deportivo Riestra+0.01on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosario Central ↓

Deportivo Riestra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–111%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Rosario Central or draw

79%

Rosario Central or Deportivo Riestra

69%

Draw or Deportivo Riestra

52%

Winning margin

Rosario Central wins by 2+

21%

Deportivo Riestra wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Rosario Central 1+ goals

68%

Rosario Central 2+ goals

32%

Rosario Central 3+ goals

11%

Deportivo Riestra 1+ goals

48%

Deportivo Riestra 2+ goals

14%

Deportivo Riestra 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Rosario Central (draw refunded)

70%

Deportivo Riestra (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosario Central at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.62 · 18 matches

Deportivo Riestra away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosario Central attack 1.04 + Deportivo Riestra defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.15

Deportivo Riestra attack 0.68 + Rosario Central defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rosario Central scores more

48%

level

31%

Deportivo Riestra scores more

21%

Rosario Central at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rosario Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. Veliz

Rosario Central · F

8.2

Match Events

8'

A. Veliz↳ I. Malcorra

14'

23'

40'

45+3'

58'

G. Obredor← M. Ramirez

59'

R. Gallo← J. Randazzo

68'

A. Diaz← N. Benegas

74'

J. M. Elordi← A. Sandez

74'

S. Lopez← A. Di Maria

75'

Pedro Ramírez

80'

Juan Manuel Elordi

81'

E. Gimenez← J. Campaz

81'

T. O'Connor← E. Copetti

82'

Milton Celiz

86'

S. Vera← M. Celiz

86'

A. Alonso← P. Ramirez

89'

J. HerreraPenalty

90+2'

Emanuel Coronel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RosarioDeportivo

Overview

62%Possession38%

13Total Shots8

1.15Expected Goals (xG)1.06

5Corners5

12Fouls19

Shots

13Total Shots8

5On Target1

6Off Target2

2Blocked5

9Inside Box4

4Outside Box4

Passing

62%Possession38%

368Total Passes218

286Accurate Passes116

78%Pass Accuracy53%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

0.18Goals Prevented0.18

Discipline

12Fouls19

3Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Rosario Central vs Deportivo Riestra

Rosario Central and Deportivo Riestra drew 1-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on August 16, 2025.

Goals: A. Veliz (8'), J. Herrera (89' pen).

Rosario Central controlled possession (62%) and registered 13 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Gigante de Arroyito in Rosario.

Rosario Central vs Deportivo Riestra — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Rosario Central vs Deportivo Riestra