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Rosario Central vs Deportivo Riestra — League #1032 2026

Rosario Central
Rosario Central
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Deportivo Riestra
Deportivo Riestra
J. Campaz 45+2'
A. Barrionuevo 14'
4/18/2024League #1032League #1032 · 1st Phase - 14Estadio Gigante de Arroyito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rosario Central43%
×Draw31%
Deportivo Riestra26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosario Central
1.13
Deportivo Riestra
0.81

Rosario Central creates 40% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Rosario Central
1.25
Deportivo Riestra
1.00

allows per match

Rosario Central
0.63
Deportivo Riestra
1.00

finishing

Rosario Central+0.00on par
Deportivo Riestra+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosario Central ↓

Deportivo Riestra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Rosario Central or draw
74%
Rosario Central or Deportivo Riestra
69%
Draw or Deportivo Riestra
57%

Winning margin

Rosario Central wins by 2+
18%
Deportivo Riestra wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rosario Central 1+ goals
68%
Rosario Central 2+ goals
31%
Rosario Central 3+ goals
11%
Deportivo Riestra 1+ goals
56%
Deportivo Riestra 2+ goals
19%
Deportivo Riestra 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rosario Central (draw refunded)
62%
Deportivo Riestra (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosario Central at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Deportivo Riestra away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosario Central attack 1.25 + Deportivo Riestra defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Deportivo Riestra attack 1.00 + Rosario Central defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rosario Central scores more
43%
level
31%
Deportivo Riestra scores more
26%

Rosario Central at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rosario Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
J. CampazRosario CentralRosario Central · M
7.9

Match Events

8'
Milton CelizCard upgrade
9'
Milton Celiz
14'
A. Barrionuevo↳ G. Pereira
15'
Alan BarrionuevoGoal confirmed
29'
J. Goitía← N. Benegas
33'
Jaminton Campaz
45+2'
J. Campaz↳ E. Coronel
46'
T. O'Connor← E. Coronel
46'
A. Rodríguez← A. Sández
61'
M. Rodríguez← G. Pereira
61'
J. Méndez← J. Herrera
67'
I. Malcorra← L. Giaccone
75'
A. Módica← M. Martínez
75'
A. Cervera← L. Martínez Dupuy
83'
Ignacio Arce
90+1'
G. Benítez← J. Méndez

Possession

83%Rosario

Shots

24Rosario

Pass accuracy

69%Rosario

Statistics

RosarioDeportivo
Overview
83%Possession17%
24Total Shots4
9Corners3
9Fouls6
Shots
24Total Shots4
5On Target2
12Off Target0
7Blocked2
12Inside Box2
12Outside Box2
Passing
83%Possession17%
587Total Passes121
522Accurate Passes49
89%Pass Accuracy40%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls6
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
2Offsides0

League #1032: Rosario Central 1–1 Deportivo Riestra

Rosario Central and Deportivo Riestra drew 1-1 in League #1032 on April 18, 2024.

Goals: A. Barrionuevo (14'), J. Campaz (45+2').

Rosario Central controlled possession (83%) and registered 24 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio Gigante de Arroyito in Rosario, Provincia de Santa Fe.