Deportivo Riestra 0–0 Rosario Central

Deportivo Riestra

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rosario Central

2/12/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 5Estadio Guillermo Laza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Deportivo Riestra40%

×Draw30%

Rosario Central30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo RiestraExpected goals in this matchRosario Central

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.94

Deportivo Riestra

1.13

Rosario Central

0.94

Deportivo Riestra creates 20% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

1.17

creates per match

0.93

0.94

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Deportivo Riestra

1.17

Rosario Central

0.93

allows per match

Deportivo Riestra

0.94

Rosario Central

1.08

+0.08on par

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

Deportivo Riestra+0.08on par

Rosario Central-0.09on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Riestra ↓

Rosario Central →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Riestra or draw

70%

Deportivo Riestra or Rosario Central

70%

Draw or Rosario Central

60%

Winning margin

Deportivo Riestra wins by 2+

17%

Rosario Central wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Deportivo Riestra 1+ goals

68%

Deportivo Riestra 2+ goals

31%

Deportivo Riestra 3+ goals

11%

Rosario Central 1+ goals

61%

Rosario Central 2+ goals

24%

Rosario Central 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Riestra (draw refunded)

57%

Rosario Central (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Riestra at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Rosario Central away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.08 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Riestra attack 1.17 + Rosario Central defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

Rosario Central attack 0.93 + Deportivo Riestra defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportivo Riestra scores more

40%

level

30%

Rosario Central scores more

30%

Deportivo Riestra at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Riestra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

E. Gimenez

Rosario Central · D

7.6

Match Events

20'

45+1'

46'

46'

46'

L. Giaccone← G. Duarte

66'

K. Ortiz← F. Navarro

66'

S. Ferreira← E. Copetti

67'

Milton Celiz

71'

N. Benegas← G. Bravo

73'

Nicolás Benegas

82'

P. Ramirez← J. Goitia

82'

B. Sanchez← M. Bracamonte

82'

E. Coronel← A. Solari

86'

A. Alonso← J. Herrera

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DeportivoRosario

Overview

33%Possession67%

9Total Shots5

7Corners7

14Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots5

2On Target2

4Off Target3

3Blocked0

7Inside Box3

2Outside Box2

Passing

33%Possession67%

192Total Passes403

96Accurate Passes306

50%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2