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Deportivo Riestra vs Rosario Central — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Deportivo Riestra
Deportivo Riestra
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Rosario Central
Rosario Central
F. Oviedo 88'
L. Martínez Dupuy 9'
5/24/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 3Estadio Guillermo Laza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Deportivo Riestra41%
×Draw29%
Rosario Central30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Riestra
1.19
Rosario Central
0.96

Deportivo Riestra creates 24% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 20 away

creates per match

Deportivo Riestra
1.24
Rosario Central
0.96

allows per match

Deportivo Riestra
0.97
Rosario Central
1.14

finishing

Deportivo Riestra-0.06on par
Rosario Central-0.06on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Riestra ↓

Rosario Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Deportivo Riestra or draw
70%
Deportivo Riestra or Rosario Central
71%
Draw or Rosario Central
59%

Winning margin

Deportivo Riestra wins by 2+
18%
Rosario Central wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Deportivo Riestra 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Riestra 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo Riestra 3+ goals
12%
Rosario Central 1+ goals
62%
Rosario Central 2+ goals
25%
Rosario Central 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Riestra (draw refunded)
58%
Rosario Central (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Riestra at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.97 · 17 matches

Rosario Central away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.14 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Riestra attack 1.24 + Rosario Central defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.19

Rosario Central attack 0.96 + Deportivo Riestra defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Deportivo Riestra scores more
41%
level
29%
Rosario Central scores more
30%

Deportivo Riestra at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Deportivo Riestra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
A. WernerRosario CentralRosario Central · G
8.3

Match Events

9'
L. Martínez Dupuy↳ L. Giaccone
16'
Franco Ibarra
32'
J. Goitía← N. Dematei
46'
Milton Celiz
46'
G. Bravo← D. Minervino
46'
F. Oviedo← L. Giaccone
53'
G. Bogado← F. Lo Celso
59'
Juan Gimenez
61'
J. Méndez← G. Fernández
61'
W. Acuña← G. Pereira
73'
M. Martínez← K. Ortíz
76'
A. Módica← L. Martínez Dupuy
76'
T. O'Connor← J. Gómez
77'
Alan Rodríguez
88'
F. Oviedo↳ F. Ibarra
90'
M. Brito← P. Monje

Possession

49%Deportivo

Shots

19Deportivo

Pass accuracy

49%Deportivo

Statistics

DeportivoRosario
Overview
49%Possession51%
19Total Shots9
2.35Expected Goals (xG)1.55
7Corners1
12Fouls14
Shots
19Total Shots9
6On Target6
6Off Target3
7Blocked0
16Inside Box5
3Outside Box4
Passing
49%Possession51%
364Total Passes406
245Accurate Passes286
67%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
4Saves6
0.72Goals Prevented0.72
Discipline
12Fouls14
1Yellow Cards3
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Deportivo Riestra vs Rosario Central

Rosario Central beat Deportivo Riestra 2-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on May 24, 2024.

Goals: L. Martínez Dupuy (9'), F. Oviedo (88').

Rosario Central controlled possession (51%) and registered 9 shots to 19.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Laza in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.