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Rosario Central vs Aldosivi — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Rosario Central
Rosario Central
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Aldosivi
Aldosivi
G. Ávila 90+6'
G. Lodico 79', 41'
8/2/2021Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 4Estadio Dr. Lisandro de la Torre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Rosario Central49%
×Draw29%
Aldosivi22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosario Central
1.31
Aldosivi
0.77

Rosario Central creates 70% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 6 away

creates per match

Rosario Central
1.04
Aldosivi
0.92

allows per match

Rosario Central
0.62
Aldosivi
1.59

finishing

Rosario Central+0.29scores more
Aldosivi-0.25scores less

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosario Central ↓

Aldosivi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Rosario Central or draw
78%
Rosario Central or Aldosivi
71%
Draw or Aldosivi
51%

Winning margin

Rosario Central wins by 2+
23%
Aldosivi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rosario Central 1+ goals
73%
Rosario Central 2+ goals
38%
Rosario Central 3+ goals
14%
Aldosivi 1+ goals
54%
Aldosivi 2+ goals
18%
Aldosivi 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Rosario Central (draw refunded)
69%
Aldosivi (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosario Central at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.62 · 18 matches

Aldosivi away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.59 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosario Central attack 1.04 + Aldosivi defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.31

Aldosivi attack 0.92 + Rosario Central defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rosario Central scores more
49%
level
29%
Aldosivi scores more
22%

Rosario Central at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rosario Central will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
G. LodicoAldosiviAldosivi · M
9.0

Match Events

28'
D. Zabala← L. Gamba
38'
Emiliano Vecchio
39'
Gastón Gil Romero
41'
G. Lodico↳ M. Braida
60'
F. Gino← M. Cauteruccio
69'
L. Martínez← A. Marinelli
69'
Luciano Ismael Ferreyra← F. Lo Celso
71'
Federico Gino
75'
Diego Zabala
77'
E. Iñíguez← F. Cerro
77'
L. Maciel← M. Braida
79'
G. Lodico↳ F. Gino
82'
M. López← F. Coloccini
90+6'
G. Ávila↳ D. Martínez

Possession

56%Rosario

Shots

12Rosario

Pass accuracy

51%Rosario

Statistics

RosarioAldosivi
Overview
56%Possession44%
12Total Shots12
8Corners5
14Fouls13
Shots
12Total Shots12
4On Target5
7Off Target4
1Blocked3
8Inside Box7
4Outside Box5
Passing
56%Possession44%
481Total Passes396
373Accurate Passes294
78%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls13
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides3

Liga Profesional Argentina: Rosario Central 1–2 Aldosivi

Aldosivi beat Rosario Central 2-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on August 2, 2021.

Goals: G. Lodico (41', 79'), G. Ávila (90+6').

Rosario Central controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Dr. Lisandro de la Torre in Rosario, Provincia de Santa Fe.