Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Aldosivi vs Rosario Central — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Aldosivi
Aldosivi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rosario Central
Rosario Central
M. Cauteruccio 15' (pen)
4/15/2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 10Estadio José María Minella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Aldosivi37%
×Draw32%
Rosario Central31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aldosivi
0.97
Rosario Central
0.87

Aldosivi creates 11% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 18 away

creates per match

Aldosivi
0.85
Rosario Central
0.91

allows per match

Aldosivi
0.83
Rosario Central
1.08

finishing

Aldosivi-0.02on par
Rosario Central-0.08on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aldosivi ↓

Rosario Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Aldosivi or draw
69%
Aldosivi or Rosario Central
68%
Draw or Rosario Central
63%

Winning margin

Aldosivi wins by 2+
14%
Rosario Central wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Aldosivi 1+ goals
62%
Aldosivi 2+ goals
25%
Aldosivi 3+ goals
7%
Rosario Central 1+ goals
58%
Rosario Central 2+ goals
22%
Rosario Central 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Aldosivi (draw refunded)
54%
Rosario Central (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aldosivi at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Rosario Central away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.08 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aldosivi attack 0.85 + Rosario Central defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.97

Rosario Central attack 0.91 + Aldosivi defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Aldosivi scores more
37%
level
32%
Rosario Central scores more
31%

Aldosivi at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Aldosivi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
M. LópezAldosiviAldosivi · D
7.5

Match Events

15'
M. CauteruccioPenalty
23'
Walter Montoya
61'
L. Maciel← A. Ríos
64'
M. Caraglio← W. Montoya
75'
J. Zacaría← C. Meli
76'
P. Boolsen← E. Mosquera
76'
S. Silva← B. Martínez
81'
M. Covea← G. Infantino
81'
F. Frías← A. Véliz
82'
Martín Cauteruccio
84'
Matías Morello
85'
M. Pisano← M. Cauteruccio

Possession

38%Aldosivi

Shots

3Aldosivi

Pass accuracy

43%Aldosivi

Statistics

AldosiviRosario
Overview
38%Possession62%
3Total Shots14
1Corners5
14Fouls9
Shots
3Total Shots14
1On Target1
2Off Target9
0Blocked4
1Inside Box9
2Outside Box5
Passing
38%Possession62%
268Total Passes427
148Accurate Passes318
55%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
14Fouls9
2Yellow Cards1
4Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Aldosivi 1–0 Rosario Central

Aldosivi beat Rosario Central 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on April 15, 2022.

Goals: M. Cauteruccio (15' pen).

Rosario Central controlled possession (62%) and registered 14 shots to 3.

The match was played at Estadio José María Minella in Mar del Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires.