Aldosivi 2–1 Rosario Central: Result & Stats

Aldosivi

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Rosario Central

L. Maciel 83'

A. Ríos 33'

J. Báez 62'

7/4/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 6Estadio José María Minella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Aldosivi37%

×Draw32%

Rosario Central31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AldosiviExpected goals in this matchRosario Central

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

0.87

Aldosivi

0.97

Rosario Central

0.87

Aldosivi creates 11% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 18 away

0.85

creates per match

0.91

0.83

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Aldosivi

0.85

Rosario Central

0.91

allows per match

Aldosivi

0.83

Rosario Central

1.08

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Aldosivi-0.02on par

Rosario Central-0.08on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aldosivi ↓

Rosario Central →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Aldosivi or draw

69%

Aldosivi or Rosario Central

68%

Draw or Rosario Central

63%

Winning margin

Aldosivi wins by 2+

14%

Rosario Central wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Aldosivi 1+ goals

62%

Aldosivi 2+ goals

25%

Aldosivi 3+ goals

7%

Rosario Central 1+ goals

58%

Rosario Central 2+ goals

22%

Rosario Central 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Aldosivi (draw refunded)

54%

Rosario Central (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aldosivi at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Rosario Central away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.08 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aldosivi attack 0.85 + Rosario Central defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.97

Rosario Central attack 0.91 + Aldosivi defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Aldosivi scores more

37%

level

32%

Rosario Central scores more

31%

Aldosivi at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Aldosivi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

J. Báez

Rosario Central · D

8.3

Match Events

31'

Lautaro Blanco

33'

A. Ríos

35'

Andy RiosGoal confirmed

46'

G. Infantino← L. Ferreyra

46'

A. Véliz← M. Covea

47'

Alejo Veliz

57'

F. Buonanotte← M. Benítez

60'

62'

62'

70'

81'

83'

L. Maciel↳ B. Martínez

88'

Matias Morello

90+1'

T. Lecanda← R. Lucero

90+1'

F. De La Vega← B. Martínez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AldosiviRosario

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots13

5Corners6

18Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots13

4On Target5

1Off Target4

6Blocked4

6Inside Box10

5Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

269Total Passes297

173Accurate Passes192

64%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

18Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides4