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Aldosivi vs Rosario Central — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Aldosivi
Aldosivi
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rosario Central
Rosario Central
D. Zabala 86'
4/16/2021Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 10Estadio José María Minella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Aldosivi37%
×Draw32%
Rosario Central31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aldosivi
0.97
Rosario Central
0.87

Aldosivi creates 11% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 18 away

creates per match

Aldosivi
0.85
Rosario Central
0.91

allows per match

Aldosivi
0.83
Rosario Central
1.08

finishing

Aldosivi-0.02on par
Rosario Central-0.08on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aldosivi ↓

Rosario Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Aldosivi or draw
69%
Aldosivi or Rosario Central
68%
Draw or Rosario Central
63%

Winning margin

Aldosivi wins by 2+
14%
Rosario Central wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Aldosivi 1+ goals
62%
Aldosivi 2+ goals
25%
Aldosivi 3+ goals
7%
Rosario Central 1+ goals
58%
Rosario Central 2+ goals
22%
Rosario Central 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Aldosivi (draw refunded)
54%
Rosario Central (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aldosivi at home — creates 0.85, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Rosario Central away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.08 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aldosivi attack 0.85 + Rosario Central defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.97

Rosario Central attack 0.91 + Aldosivi defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Aldosivi scores more
37%
level
32%
Rosario Central scores more
31%

Aldosivi at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Aldosivi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
E. VecchioRosario CentralRosario Central · M
8.0

Match Events

12'
Emiliano Vecchio
22'
Francisco Grahl
29'
Fernando Torrent
31'
Joaquín Laso
36'
F. Perinciolo← F. Román
57'
R. Contreras← B. Guzmán
65'
F. Lo Celso← A. Marinelli
71'
L. Maciel← F. Grahl
71'
J. Iritier← J. Indacoechea
71'
G. Lodico← M. Braida
72'
Leandro Maciel
73'
D. Zabala← L. Gamba
78'
L. Giaccone← Luciano Ismael Ferreyra
86'
D. Zabala↳ E. Vecchio

Possession

57%Aldosivi

Shots

8Aldosivi

Pass accuracy

52%Aldosivi

Statistics

AldosiviRosario
Overview
57%Possession43%
8Total Shots15
3Corners6
20Fouls13
Shots
8Total Shots15
4On Target5
4Off Target9
0Blocked1
6Inside Box11
2Outside Box4
Passing
57%Possession43%
453Total Passes331
329Accurate Passes224
73%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
20Fouls13
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Aldosivi 0–1 Rosario Central

Rosario Central beat Aldosivi 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on April 16, 2021.

Goals: D. Zabala (86').

Aldosivi controlled possession (57%) and registered 8 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio José María Minella in Mar del Plata, Provincia de Buenos Aires.