Romania 3–0 Norway: Result & Stats

Romania

FT

3 – 0

Norway

11/15/2020

UEFA Nations League · League B - 5Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Romania51%

×Draw25%

Norway25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RomaniaExpected goals in this matchNorway

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.06

Romania

1.64

Norway

1.06

Romania creates 55% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.83

creates per match

1.45

0.67

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Romania

1.83

Norway

1.45

allows per match

Romania

0.67

Norway

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Romania+0.00on par

Norway+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romania ↓

Norway →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Romania or draw

75%

Romania or Norway

75%

Draw or Norway

49%

Winning margin

Romania wins by 2+

27%

Norway wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Romania 1+ goals

81%

Romania 2+ goals

49%

Romania 3+ goals

23%

Norway 1+ goals

65%

Norway 2+ goals

29%

Norway 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Romania (draw refunded)

67%

Norway (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Romania at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Norway away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Romania attack 1.83 + Norway defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.64

Norway attack 1.45 + Romania defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Romania scores more

51%

level

25%

Norway scores more

25%

Romania at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Romania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff