Norway 4–0 Romania: Result & Stats

Norway

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Romania

Erling Braut Haaland 74', 64', 13'

Alexander Sørloth 39'

10/11/2020

UEFA Nations League · League B - 3Ullevaal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Norway50%

×Draw25%

Romania25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwayExpected goals in this matchRomania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.04

Norway

1.58

Romania

1.04

Norway creates 52% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.92

creates per match

1.50

0.58

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Norway

1.92

Romania

1.50

allows per match

Norway

0.58

Romania

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norway+0.00on par

Romania+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway ↓

Romania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Norway or draw

75%

Norway or Romania

75%

Draw or Romania

50%

Winning margin

Norway wins by 2+

26%

Romania wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Norway 1+ goals

79%

Norway 2+ goals

47%

Norway 3+ goals

21%

Romania 1+ goals

65%

Romania 2+ goals

28%

Romania 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Norway (draw refunded)

67%

Romania (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norway at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.58 · 12 matches

Romania away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norway attack 1.92 + Romania defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.58

Romania attack 1.50 + Norway defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Norway scores more

50%

level

25%

Romania scores more

25%

Norway at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Norway will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Alexander Sørloth

Norway · F

9.5

Match Events

13'

Erling Braut Haaland↳ Martin Ødegaard

39'

Alexander Sørloth↳ Birger Meling

61'

Omar Elabdellaoui

64'

Erling Braut Haaland↳ Martin Ødegaard

64'

Claudiu Keșerü← George Pușcaș

64'

Alexandru Mitriță← Ianis Hagi

70'

Fredrik Midtsjø← Mathias Normann

70'

Martin Linnes← Martin Ødegaard

74'

Erling Braut Haaland↳ Alexander Sørloth

75'

Alexandru Maxim← Alexandru Crețu

75'

Nicolae Stanciu← Alexandru Cicâldău

79'

Jonas Svensson← Omar Elabdellaoui

79'

Joshua King← Erling Braut Haaland

84'

Nicușor Bancu

85'

Jens Petter Hauge← Mohamed Elyounoussi

90'

Denis Alibec← Gabriel Iancu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwayRomania

Overview

49%Possession51%

21Total Shots12

5Corners4

10Fouls8

Shots

21Total Shots12

10On Target3

6Off Target5

5Blocked4

15Inside Box5

6Outside Box7

Passing

49%Possession51%

450Total Passes458

375Accurate Passes379

83%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

10Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0