Romania 1–1 Norway: Result & Stats

Romania

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Norway

A. Mitriță 62'

A. Sørloth 90+2'

10/15/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 8Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Romania34%

×Draw27%

Norway40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RomaniaExpected goals in this matchNorway

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.34

Romania

1.21

Norway

1.34

Norway creates 11% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.43

creates per match

1.40

1.29

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Romania

1.43

Norway

1.40

allows per match

Romania

1.29

Norway

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Romania+0.00on par

Norway+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romania ↓

Norway →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Romania or draw

60%

Romania or Norway

73%

Draw or Norway

66%

Winning margin

Romania wins by 2+

14%

Norway wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Romania 1+ goals

70%

Romania 2+ goals

34%

Romania 3+ goals

12%

Norway 1+ goals

74%

Norway 2+ goals

39%

Norway 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Romania (draw refunded)

46%

Norway (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Romania at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Norway away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Romania attack 1.43 + Norway defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Norway attack 1.40 + Romania defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Romania scores more

34%

level

27%

Norway scores more

40%

Norway at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Norway will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

R. Jarstein

Norway · G

8.1

Match Events

42'

Romario Benzar

46'

A. Sørloth← S. Johansen

62'

A. Mitriță

63'

F. Andone← G. Puşcaş

67'

B. Johnsen← O. Selnæs

79'

D. Nistor← A. Mitriță

80'

Dan Nistor

81'

M. Normann← M. Henriksen

84'

M. Bordeianu← P. Anton

90+2'

A. Sørloth↳ M. Normann

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RomaniaNorway

Overview

35%Possession65%

15Total Shots14

5Corners8

12Fouls9

Shots

15Total Shots14

6On Target4

8Off Target6

1Blocked4

6Inside Box10

9Outside Box4

Passing

35%Possession65%

285Total Passes525

200Accurate Passes420

70%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls9

2Yellow Cards0

2Offsides2