Norway 2–2 Romania: Result & Stats

Norway

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Romania

M. Ødegaard 70'

T. Elyounoussi 56'

C. Keșerü 90+2', 76'

6/7/2019

Euro Championship · Qualifying Round - 3Ullevaal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Norway54%

×Draw21%

Romania25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwayExpected goals in this matchRomania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.35

Norway

2.08

Romania

1.35

Norway creates 54% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 8 away

2.40

creates per match

1.50

1.20

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Norway

2.40

Romania

1.50

allows per match

Norway

1.20

Romania

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Norway+0.00on par

Romania+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norway ↓

Romania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Norway or draw

75%

Norway or Romania

79%

Draw or Romania

46%

Winning margin

Norway wins by 2+

32%

Romania wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Norway 1+ goals

87%

Norway 2+ goals

61%

Norway 3+ goals

34%

Romania 1+ goals

74%

Romania 2+ goals

39%

Romania 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Norway (draw refunded)

69%

Romania (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norway at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Romania away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norway attack 2.40 + Romania defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.08

Romania attack 1.50 + Norway defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Norway scores more

54%

level

21%

Romania scores more

25%

Norway at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Norway will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

C. Keșerü

Romania · M

7.9

Match Events

17'

22'

56'

60'

60'

G. Țucudean← G. Puşcaş

70'

M. Ødegaard↳ J. King

72'

A. Maxim← N. Stanciu

76'

C. Keșerü↳ D. Grigore

80'

Dragoş Grigore

84'

O. Kamara← T. Elyounoussi

90+2'

C. Keșerü

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwayRomania

Overview

53%Possession47%

9Total Shots15

5Corners4

13Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots15

4On Target7

3Off Target5

2Blocked3

6Inside Box9

3Outside Box6

Passing

53%Possession47%

497Total Passes426

381Accurate Passes325

77%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

5Offsides0