Rodez 1–1 Chateauroux: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Rodez

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Chateauroux

R. Boissier 62'

R. Boukari 68'

12/18/2020

Ligue 2 · Round 16Stade Paul Lignon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Rodez46%

×Draw28%

Chateauroux26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RodezExpected goals in this matchChateauroux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.93

Rodez

1.33

Chateauroux

0.93

Rodez creates 43% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 50 away

1.31

creates per match

0.68

1.17

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Rodez

1.31

Chateauroux

0.68

allows per match

Rodez

1.17

Chateauroux

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rodez+0.00on par

Chateauroux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodez ↓

Chateauroux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rodez or draw

74%

Rodez or Chateauroux

72%

Draw or Chateauroux

54%

Winning margin

Rodez wins by 2+

21%

Chateauroux wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Rodez 1+ goals

74%

Rodez 2+ goals

38%

Rodez 3+ goals

15%

Chateauroux 1+ goals

61%

Chateauroux 2+ goals

24%

Chateauroux 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Rodez (draw refunded)

64%

Chateauroux (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodez at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.17 · 122 matches

Chateauroux away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodez attack 1.31 + Chateauroux defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Chateauroux attack 0.68 + Rodez defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rodez scores more

46%

level

28%

Chateauroux scores more

26%

Rodez at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rodez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

R. Boissier

Rodez · M

7.9

Match Events

9'

28'

47'

54'

57'

62'

66'

R. Boukari← A. Raineau

67'

D. Gueye← A. Kerouedan

67'

A. Nouri← I. Chouaref

67'

68'

77'

78'

86'

A. Gonçalves← R. Grange

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RodezChateauroux

Overview

48%Possession52%

17Total Shots12

3Corners7

17Fouls12

Shots

17Total Shots12

4On Target4

10Off Target6

3Blocked2

5Inside Box3

12Outside Box9

Passing

48%Possession52%

323Total Passes346

214Accurate Passes231

66%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2

Ligue 2: Rodez 1–1 Chateauroux

Rodez and Chateauroux drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on December 18, 2020.

Goals: R. Boissier (62'), R. Boukari (68').

Chateauroux controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 17.

The match was played at Stade Paul Lignon in Rodez.

Rodez vs Chateauroux — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Rodez 1–1 Chateauroux