Chateauroux 0–0 Rodez: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Chateauroux

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rodez

8/2/2019

Ligue 2 · Round 2Stade Gaston Petit (Châteauroux)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Chateauroux33%

×Draw27%

Rodez40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChateaurouxExpected goals in this matchRodez

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.34

Chateauroux

1.20

Rodez

1.34

Rodez creates 12% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 122 away

1.06

creates per match

1.11

1.57

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Chateauroux

1.06

Rodez

1.11

allows per match

Chateauroux

1.57

Rodez

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chateauroux+0.00on par

Rodez+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chateauroux ↓

Rodez →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Chateauroux or draw

60%

Chateauroux or Rodez

73%

Draw or Rodez

67%

Winning margin

Chateauroux wins by 2+

14%

Rodez wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Chateauroux 1+ goals

70%

Chateauroux 2+ goals

34%

Chateauroux 3+ goals

12%

Rodez 1+ goals

74%

Rodez 2+ goals

39%

Rodez 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Chateauroux (draw refunded)

45%

Rodez (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chateauroux at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.57 · 53 matches

Rodez away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.34 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chateauroux attack 1.06 + Rodez defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.20

Rodez attack 1.11 + Chateauroux defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chateauroux scores more

33%

level

27%

Rodez scores more

40%

Rodez at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rodez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

A. Raineau

Chateauroux · D

7.4

Match Events

27'

A. Peyrelade← L. Poujol

38'

45'

45+1'

52'

60'

66'

69'

76'

Y. Padilla← F. Diarra

76'

N. Ouammou← P. Ruffaut

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ChateaurouxRodez

Overview

57%Possession43%

10Total Shots10

1Corners3

18Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots10

2On Target0

6Off Target5

2Blocked5

5Inside Box3

5Outside Box7

Passing

57%Possession43%

511Total Passes373

428Accurate Passes285

84%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2

Ligue 2: Chateauroux 0–0 Rodez

Chateauroux and Rodez drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on August 2, 2019.

Chateauroux controlled possession (57%) and registered 10 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stade Gaston Petit (Châteauroux) in Châteauroux.

Chateauroux vs Rodez — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Chateauroux 0–0 Rodez