Rodez 1–2 Chateauroux: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Rodez

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Chateauroux

U. Bonnet 59'

A. Goncalves 90+1'

I. Chouaref 14'

1/10/2020

Ligue 2 · Round 20Stade Paul Lignon (Rodez)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Rodez46%

×Draw28%

Chateauroux26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RodezExpected goals in this matchChateauroux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.93

Rodez

1.33

Chateauroux

0.93

Rodez creates 43% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 50 away

1.31

creates per match

0.68

1.17

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Rodez

1.31

Chateauroux

0.68

allows per match

Rodez

1.17

Chateauroux

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rodez+0.00on par

Chateauroux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodez ↓

Chateauroux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rodez or draw

74%

Rodez or Chateauroux

72%

Draw or Chateauroux

54%

Winning margin

Rodez wins by 2+

21%

Chateauroux wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Rodez 1+ goals

74%

Rodez 2+ goals

38%

Rodez 3+ goals

15%

Chateauroux 1+ goals

61%

Chateauroux 2+ goals

24%

Chateauroux 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Rodez (draw refunded)

64%

Chateauroux (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodez at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.17 · 122 matches

Chateauroux away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodez attack 1.31 + Chateauroux defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Chateauroux attack 0.68 + Rodez defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rodez scores more

46%

level

28%

Chateauroux scores more

26%

Rodez at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rodez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

R. Grange

Chateauroux · F

8.2

Match Events

3'

Remi Mulumba

14'

I. Chouaref↳ R. Grange

26'

27'

42'

45'

45+1'

A. Goncalves← F. Diarra

56'

A. Ouhafsa← G. Coelho

59'

U. Bonnet

69'

P. Sané← P. Ruffaut

80'

P. Keny← L. Leroy

81'

C. Jacob← R. Boissier

82'

Joris Chougrani

85'

Romain Grange

90+1'

A. Goncalves↳ R. Grange

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RodezChateauroux

Overview

42%Possession58%

5Total Shots11

5Corners1

12Fouls11

Shots

5Total Shots11

3On Target5

2Off Target5

0Blocked1

3Inside Box6

2Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

357Total Passes498

273Accurate Passes425

76%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls11

1Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1