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Chateauroux vs Rodez — Ligue 2 2018

Chateauroux
Chateauroux
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rodez
Rodez
A. Bonny 77'
R. Boissier 71'
4/20/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 34Stade Gaston Petit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Chateauroux33%
×Draw27%
Rodez40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chateauroux
1.20
Rodez
1.34

Rodez creates 12% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 122 away

creates per match

Chateauroux
1.06
Rodez
1.11

allows per match

Chateauroux
1.57
Rodez
1.34

finishing

Chateauroux+0.00on par
Rodez+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chateauroux ↓

Rodez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Chateauroux or draw
60%
Chateauroux or Rodez
73%
Draw or Rodez
67%

Winning margin

Chateauroux wins by 2+
14%
Rodez wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Chateauroux 1+ goals
70%
Chateauroux 2+ goals
34%
Chateauroux 3+ goals
12%
Rodez 1+ goals
74%
Rodez 2+ goals
39%
Rodez 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Chateauroux (draw refunded)
45%
Rodez (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chateauroux at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.57 · 53 matches

Rodez away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.34 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chateauroux attack 1.06 + Rodez defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.20

Rodez attack 1.11 + Chateauroux defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chateauroux scores more
33%
level
27%
Rodez scores more
40%

Rodez at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rodez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
R. GrangeChateaurouxChateauroux · M
7.6

Match Events

61'
Prince Ibara
69'
A. Bonny← L. Leroy
69'
M. Dembélé← F. David
69'
U. Bonnet← A. Ouhafsa
71'
R. Boissier↳ J. Leborgne
73'
B. Canelhas← Opa Sanganté
73'
P. Keny← G. Tormin
77'
A. Bonny
85'
Y. Merdji← I. Chouaref
85'
P. Ruffaut← R. Boissier
86'
J. Ponceau← J. Leborgne
90'
Yanis Merdji

Possession

66%Chateauroux

Shots

11Chateauroux

Pass accuracy

53%Chateauroux

Statistics

ChateaurouxRodez
Overview
66%Possession34%
11Total Shots10
4Corners3
15Fouls15
Shots
11Total Shots10
1On Target3
8Off Target7
2Blocked0
4Inside Box7
7Outside Box3
Passing
66%Possession34%
679Total Passes328
604Accurate Passes258
89%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
15Fouls15
2Yellow Cards0
2Offsides6

Match Recap: Chateauroux vs Rodez

Chateauroux and Rodez drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on April 20, 2021.

Goals: R. Boissier (71'), A. Bonny (77').

Chateauroux controlled possession (66%) and registered 11 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stade Gaston Petit in Châteauroux.