Rodez 5–3 Bastia: Result & Stats | Friendlies Clubs

Rodez

FT

5 – 3

HT: 3 – 1

Bastia

M. Baaloudj 75'

I. Balde 66'

M. Touho 40', 15'

K. Nagera 17'

A. Zaouai 87'

R. Beliandjou 60' (pen)

J. Sebas 8'

7/10/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rodez51%

×Draw20%

Bastia29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RodezExpected goals in this matchBastia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.69

Rodez

2.27

Bastia

1.69

Rodez creates 34% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

1.88

creates per match

2.00

1.38

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Rodez

1.88

Bastia

2.00

allows per match

Rodez

1.38

Bastia

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rodez+0.00on par

Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodez ↓

Bastia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Rodez or draw

71%

Rodez or Bastia

80%

Draw or Bastia

49%

Winning margin

Rodez wins by 2+

31%

Bastia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Rodez 1+ goals

90%

Rodez 2+ goals

66%

Rodez 3+ goals

39%

Bastia 1+ goals

82%

Bastia 2+ goals

50%

Bastia 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Rodez (draw refunded)

64%

Bastia (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodez at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Bastia away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodez attack 1.88 + Bastia defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.27

Bastia attack 2.00 + Rodez defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rodez scores more

51%

level

20%

Bastia scores more

29%

Rodez at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rodez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

15'

17'

40'

60'

R. BeliandjouPenalty

66'

I. Balde

75'

M. Baaloudj

87'

A. Zaouai

Rodez

Bastia

⚽

⚽

1

4

5

17

13

20

21

22

6

9

⚽

Nagera

24

⚽2

Touho

Manager: Didier Santini

Rodez substitutes

16MargueronHernandez3LipinskiLaurentCaubet26BenchammaCartillier15Jean-Lambert25Galves18Balde10Baaloudj

Manager: Michel Moretti

Bastia substitutes

FofanaDjedjeAkuesonBathilyDialloEickmayerPetrignaniBeliandjouTamba

Friendlies Clubs: Rodez 5–3 Bastia

Rodez beat Bastia 5-3 in Friendlies Clubs on July 10, 2026.

Goals: J. Sebas (8'), M. Touho (15', 40'), K. Nagera (17'), R. Beliandjou (60' pen), I. Balde (66'), M. Baaloudj (75'), A. Zaouai (87').

Rodez vs Bastia — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: Rodez 5–3 Bastia