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Rodez vs Bastia — Ligue 2 2018

Rodez
Rodez
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bastia
Bastia
T. Arconte 24' (pen)
J. Eickmayer 40'
3/20/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 28Stade Paul-Lignon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Rodez42%
×Draw27%
Bastia31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodez
1.33
Bastia
1.10

Rodez creates 21% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 91 away

creates per match

Rodez
1.32
Bastia
1.03

allows per match

Rodez
1.17
Bastia
1.33

finishing

Rodez+0.00on par
Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodez ↓

Bastia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rodez or draw
69%
Rodez or Bastia
73%
Draw or Bastia
58%

Winning margin

Rodez wins by 2+
19%
Bastia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rodez 1+ goals
74%
Rodez 2+ goals
38%
Rodez 3+ goals
15%
Bastia 1+ goals
67%
Bastia 2+ goals
30%
Bastia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rodez (draw refunded)
58%
Bastia (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodez at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.17 · 124 matches

Bastia away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.33 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodez attack 1.32 + Bastia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bastia attack 1.03 + Rodez defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rodez scores more
42%
level
27%
Bastia scores more
31%

Rodez at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rodez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
J. EickmayerBastiaBastia · M
8.3

Match Events

24'
T. ArcontePenalty
40'
J. Eickmayer↳ A. Zaouai
50'
Anthony Roncaglia
59'
M. Merghem← A. Zaouai
59'
A. Boutrah← J. Sebas
68'
M. Saka← S. Benchamma
68'
W. Younoussa← O. Joly
72'
Jean Lambert Evan's Allan
76'
T. Ducrocq← A. Roncaglia
77'
I. Balde← K. Nagera
77'
R. Beliandjou← F. Tomi
85'
C. Vincent← J. Eickmayer
88'
A. Trouillet← J. Mendes
88'
M. Baaloudj← T. Arconte
90+5'
Amine Boutrah

Possession

48%Rodez

Shots

12Rodez

Pass accuracy

50%Rodez

Statistics

RodezBastia
Overview
48%Possession52%
12Total Shots13
9Corners2
9Fouls10
Shots
12Total Shots13
3On Target6
6Off Target2
3Blocked5
9Inside Box4
3Outside Box9
Passing
48%Possession52%
300Total Passes336
221Accurate Passes251
74%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls10
1Yellow Cards2
5Offsides1

Match Recap: Rodez vs Bastia

Rodez and Bastia drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on March 20, 2026.

Goals: T. Arconte (24' pen), J. Eickmayer (40').

Bastia controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stade Paul-Lignon in Rodez.