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Bastia vs Rodez — Ligue 2 2018

Bastia
Bastia
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Rodez
Rodez
T. Ducrocq 58' (pen)
A. Boutrah 37'
I. Balde 90'
M. Magnin 86'
M. Achi 76'
9/23/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 7Stade Armand Cesari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Bastia42%
×Draw28%
Rodez30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bastia
1.25
Rodez
1.02

Bastia creates 23% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 124 away

creates per match

Bastia
1.18
Rodez
1.11

allows per match

Bastia
0.93
Rodez
1.33

finishing

Bastia+0.00on par
Rodez+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bastia ↓

Rodez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bastia or draw
70%
Bastia or Rodez
72%
Draw or Rodez
58%

Winning margin

Bastia wins by 2+
18%
Rodez wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bastia 1+ goals
71%
Bastia 2+ goals
36%
Bastia 3+ goals
13%
Rodez 1+ goals
64%
Rodez 2+ goals
27%
Rodez 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bastia (draw refunded)
58%
Rodez (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bastia at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 90 matches

Rodez away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.33 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bastia attack 1.18 + Rodez defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Rodez attack 1.11 + Bastia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bastia scores more
42%
level
28%
Rodez scores more
30%

Bastia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bastia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
A. BoutrahBastiaBastia · M
8.9

Match Events

19'
Mathis Magnin
37'
A. Boutrah↳ Z. Ariss
58'
T. DucrocqPenalty
62'
Y. Bathily← A. Zaouai
64'
M. Achi← O. Joly
65'
M. Tourraine← N. Galves
65'
I. Balde← M. Baaloudj
75'
I. Karamoko← M. Ble
76'
M. Achi↳ K. Nagera
80'
T. Meynadier←
80'
E. Jean-Lambert← R. Ponti
80'
M. Saka← J. Mendes
82'
Tom Meynadier
86'
M. Magnin↳ E. Jean-Lambert
90+1'
Ibrahima Baldé
90'
I. Balde↳ K. Nagera

Possession

58%Bastia

Shots

20Bastia

Pass accuracy

54%Bastia

Statistics

BastiaRodez
Overview
58%Possession42%
20Total Shots11
7Corners6
15Fouls16
Shots
20Total Shots11
9On Target3
7Off Target5
4Blocked3
8Inside Box10
12Outside Box1
Passing
58%Possession42%
409Total Passes275
322Accurate Passes186
79%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
0Saves7
Discipline
15Fouls16
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides5

Bastia 2 – 3 Rodez

Rodez beat Bastia 3-2 in Ligue 2 on September 23, 2025.

Goals: A. Boutrah (37'), T. Ducrocq (58' pen), M. Achi (76'), M. Magnin (86'), I. Balde (90').

Bastia controlled possession (58%) and registered 20 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stade Armand Cesari in Bastia.