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Rodez vs Bastia — Ligue 2 2018

Rodez
Rodez
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Bastia
Bastia
M. Blé 88'
L. Cissé 15'
2/7/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 22Stade Paul Lignon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Rodez42%
×Draw27%
Bastia31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodez
1.33
Bastia
1.10

Rodez creates 21% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 91 away

creates per match

Rodez
1.32
Bastia
1.03

allows per match

Rodez
1.17
Bastia
1.33

finishing

Rodez+0.00on par
Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodez ↓

Bastia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rodez or draw
69%
Rodez or Bastia
73%
Draw or Bastia
58%

Winning margin

Rodez wins by 2+
19%
Bastia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rodez 1+ goals
74%
Rodez 2+ goals
38%
Rodez 3+ goals
15%
Bastia 1+ goals
67%
Bastia 2+ goals
30%
Bastia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rodez (draw refunded)
58%
Bastia (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodez at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.17 · 124 matches

Bastia away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.33 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodez attack 1.32 + Bastia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bastia attack 1.03 + Rodez defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rodez scores more
42%
level
27%
Bastia scores more
31%

Rodez at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rodez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
G. AkuesonBastiaBastia · D
8.0

Match Events

15'
L. Cissé
24'
Ibrahima Baldé
24'
Anthony Roncaglia
26'
Loni Laurent
30'
Wilitty Younoussa
50'
Tom Meynadier
62'
Eric Vandenabeele
63'
M. Blé← J. Sebas
67'
Y. Verdier← I. Baldé
69'
Till Cissokho
75'
D. Mazou-Sacko← W. Taïbi
75'
J. Guevara← C. Inao Oulaï
76'
A. Abdallah← N. Galves
84'
M. Achi← T. Nkada
84'
T. Bentayeb← É. Vandenabeele
85'
F. Bohnert← T. Meynadier
85'
L. Tramoni← L. Cissé
88'
M. Blé

Possession

43%Rodez

Shots

9Rodez

Pass accuracy

46%Rodez

Statistics

RodezBastia
Overview
43%Possession57%
9Total Shots13
9Corners2
15Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots13
2On Target6
2Off Target4
5Blocked3
5Inside Box5
4Outside Box8
Passing
43%Possession57%
287Total Passes406
188Accurate Passes321
66%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
4Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls11
5Yellow Cards2
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Rodez vs Bastia

Bastia beat Rodez 2-0 in Ligue 2 on February 7, 2025.

Goals: L. Cissé (15'), M. Blé (88').

Bastia controlled possession (57%) and registered 13 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stade Paul Lignon in Rodez.