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Rodez vs Bastia — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Rodez
Rodez
Canc
16:30
Bastia
Bastia
7/14/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rodez44%
×Draw22%
Bastia34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rodez
1.94
Bastia
1.69

Rodez creates 15% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Rodez
1.88
Bastia
2.00

allows per match

Rodez
1.38
Bastia
2.00

finishing

Rodez+0.00on par
Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodez ↓

Bastia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Rodez or draw
66%
Rodez or Bastia
78%
Draw or Bastia
56%

Winning margin

Rodez wins by 2+
24%
Bastia wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Rodez 1+ goals
86%
Rodez 2+ goals
58%
Rodez 3+ goals
30%
Bastia 1+ goals
82%
Bastia 2+ goals
50%
Bastia 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Rodez (draw refunded)
56%
Bastia (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodez at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Bastia away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodez attack 1.88 + Bastia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

Bastia attack 2.00 + Rodez defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rodez scores more
44%
level
22%
Bastia scores more
34%

Rodez at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rodez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rodez host Bastia

July 14, 2022: Rodez take on Bastia in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.