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Rochdale vs Gillingham — League Two 2018

Rochdale
Rochdale
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Gillingham
Gillingham
G. Lapslie 75'
O. Hawkins 23'
2/18/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 33Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Rochdale42%
×Draw27%
Gillingham31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochdale
1.36
Gillingham
1.11

Rochdale creates 23% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 101 away

creates per match

Rochdale
1.38
Gillingham
0.90

allows per match

Rochdale
1.32
Gillingham
1.35

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par
Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Gillingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw
69%
Rochdale or Gillingham
73%
Draw or Gillingham
58%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+
20%
Gillingham wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals
74%
Rochdale 2+ goals
39%
Rochdale 3+ goals
16%
Gillingham 1+ goals
67%
Gillingham 2+ goals
30%
Gillingham 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)
58%
Gillingham (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

Gillingham away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.35 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Gillingham defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.36

Gillingham attack 0.90 + Rochdale defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rochdale scores more
42%
level
27%
Gillingham scores more
31%

Rochdale at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
G. MorrisGillinghamGillingham · G
8.2

Match Events

23'
O. Hawkins
43'
J. Eastwood← R. ODonnell
47'
Jimmy Keohane
50'
Ethan Ebanks-Landell
59'
F. Seriki← J. Keohane
59'
D. Rodney← D. Lloyd-McGoldrick
59'
L. Kelly← E. Ebanks-Landell
64'
T. Nichols← A. OBrien
75'
G. Lapslie↳ T. Nichols
79'
D. Bughail-Mellor← S. Quigley
80'
D. Tutonda← D. Jefferies
88'
A. MacDonald← G. Lapslie

Possession

64%Rochdale

Shots

16Rochdale

Pass accuracy

56%Rochdale

Statistics

RochdaleGillingham
Overview
64%Possession36%
16Total Shots15
5Corners1
8Fouls12
Shots
16Total Shots15
6On Target5
4Off Target8
6Blocked2
7Inside Box9
9Outside Box6
Passing
64%Possession36%
450Total Passes268
316Accurate Passes151
70%Pass Accuracy56%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
8Fouls12
2Yellow Cards0
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Rochdale vs Gillingham

Gillingham beat Rochdale 2-0 in League Two on February 18, 2023.

Goals: O. Hawkins (23'), G. Lapslie (75').

Rochdale controlled possession (64%) and registered 16 shots to 15.

The match was played at Crown Oil Arena in Rochdale, Greater Manchester.