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Rochdale vs Gillingham — League One 2018

Rochdale
Rochdale
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Gillingham
Gillingham
E. O'Connell 90+1'
J. Akinde 47' (pen), 21'
C. Ogilvie 45+1'
R. McKenzie 9'
12/19/2020League OneLeague One · Round 19Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Rochdale37%
×Draw26%
Gillingham37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochdale
1.35
Gillingham
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 99 away

creates per match

Rochdale
1.33
Gillingham
1.17

allows per match

Rochdale
1.54
Gillingham
1.38

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par
Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Gillingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw
63%
Rochdale or Gillingham
74%
Draw or Gillingham
63%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+
17%
Gillingham wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals
74%
Rochdale 2+ goals
39%
Rochdale 3+ goals
15%
Gillingham 1+ goals
74%
Gillingham 2+ goals
39%
Gillingham 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)
50%
Gillingham (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.54 · 70 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.33 + Gillingham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Gillingham attack 1.17 + Rochdale defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rochdale scores more
37%
level
26%
Gillingham scores more
37%

Rochdale at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
C. OgilvieGillinghamGillingham · D
9.2

Match Events

9'
R. McKenzie
21'
J. Akinde↳ C. Ogilvie
45+1'
C. Ogilvie↳ S. Robertson
47'
J. AkindePenalty
63'
M. Done← K. Baah
63'
T. Bola← E. Brierley
74'
F. Tavares← A. Newby
89'
D. Drysdale← S. Robertson
90'
Eoghan O'Connell
90+2'
M. Willock← J. Eccles
90+1'
E. O'Connell

Possession

63%Rochdale

Shots

8Rochdale

Pass accuracy

52%Rochdale

Statistics

RochdaleGillingham
Overview
63%Possession37%
8Total Shots17
7Corners2
13Fouls12
Shots
8Total Shots17
3On Target10
3Off Target2
2Blocked5
3Inside Box12
5Outside Box5
Passing
63%Possession37%
493Total Passes285
388Accurate Passes212
79%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls12
1Yellow Cards0

League One: Rochdale 1–4 Gillingham

Gillingham beat Rochdale 4-1 in League One on December 19, 2020.

Goals: R. McKenzie (9'), J. Akinde (21', 47' pen), C. Ogilvie (45+1'), E. O'Connell (90+1').

Rochdale controlled possession (63%) and registered 8 shots to 17.

The match was played at Crown Oil Arena in Rochdale, Greater Manchester.