Gillingham 2–2 Rochdale: Result & Stats

Gillingham

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Rochdale

J. Akinde 90+3'

V. Oliver 43'

J. Keohane 75', 69'

1/23/2021

League One · Round 25Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Gillingham40%

×Draw25%

Rochdale36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchRochdale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.43

Gillingham

1.52

Rochdale

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 72 away

1.19

creates per match

1.38

1.48

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Gillingham

1.19

Rochdale

1.38

allows per match

Gillingham

1.48

Rochdale

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par

Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Rochdale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

64%

Gillingham or Rochdale

75%

Draw or Rochdale

60%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

19%

Rochdale wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

78%

Gillingham 2+ goals

45%

Gillingham 3+ goals

20%

Rochdale 1+ goals

76%

Rochdale 2+ goals

42%

Rochdale 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

53%

Rochdale (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.48 · 100 matches

Rochdale away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.85 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.19 + Rochdale defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.52

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Gillingham defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Gillingham scores more

40%

level

25%

Rochdale scores more

36%

Gillingham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

J. Keohane

Rochdale · D

8.3

Match Events

11'

43'

64'

69'

75'

76'

76'

T. Johnson← A. MacDonald

85'

Kwadwo Baah

85'

H. Hopper← K. Baah

89'

M. Willock← C. Slattery

90+3'

J. Akinde↳ K. Dempsey

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GillinghamRochdale

Overview

36%Possession64%

13Total Shots10

4Corners4

14Fouls8

Shots

13Total Shots10

6On Target6

4Off Target3

3Blocked1

7Inside Box7

6Outside Box3

Passing

36%Possession64%

251Total Passes460

145Accurate Passes330

58%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0