Gillingham 1–0 Rochdale: Result & Stats

Gillingham

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rochdale

S. Kashket 9'

8/6/2022

League Two · Round 2Priestfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Gillingham41%

×Draw28%

Rochdale30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GillinghamExpected goals in this matchRochdale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.02

Gillingham

1.24

Rochdale

1.02

Gillingham creates 22% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 56 away

1.12

creates per match

0.95

1.09

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Gillingham

1.12

Rochdale

0.95

allows per match

Gillingham

1.09

Rochdale

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gillingham+0.00on par

Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gillingham ↓

Rochdale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Gillingham or draw

70%

Gillingham or Rochdale

72%

Draw or Rochdale

59%

Winning margin

Gillingham wins by 2+

18%

Rochdale wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Gillingham 1+ goals

71%

Gillingham 2+ goals

35%

Gillingham 3+ goals

13%

Rochdale 1+ goals

64%

Rochdale 2+ goals

27%

Rochdale 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Gillingham (draw refunded)

58%

Rochdale (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gillingham at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.09 · 102 matches

Rochdale away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gillingham attack 1.12 + Rochdale defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.24

Rochdale attack 0.95 + Gillingham defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Gillingham scores more

41%

level

28%

Rochdale scores more

30%

Gillingham at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Gillingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

W. Wright

Gillingham · D

7.9

Match Events

9'

S. Kashket↳ W. Wright

21'

Max Ehmer

39'

Will Wright

62'

A. Odoh← E. Brierley

68'

T. Sinclair← A. White

79'

L. Walker← M. Mandron

83'

A. MacDonald← J. Green

88'

Ryan Law

88'

Abraham Odoh

90+3'

C. Alexander← S. Kashket

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GillinghamRochdale

Overview

49%Possession51%

12Total Shots5

7Corners6

12Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots5

5On Target1

3Off Target2

4Blocked2

4Inside Box3

8Outside Box2

Passing

49%Possession51%

356Total Passes380

252Accurate Passes261

71%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls15

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0