River Plate 2–0 Independiente: Result & Stats

River Plate

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Independiente

M. Borja 80'

E. Barco 17'

4/23/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 13Estadio Mâs Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

River Plate53%

×Draw26%

Independiente21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

River PlateExpected goals in this matchIndependiente

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.82

River Plate

1.49

Independiente

0.82

River Plate creates 82% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 18 away

1.92

creates per match

0.89

0.75

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

River Plate

1.92

Independiente

0.89

allows per match

River Plate

0.75

Independiente

1.06

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

River Plate+0.13scores more

Independiente-0.22scores less

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Plate ↓

Independiente →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

River Plate or draw

79%

River Plate or Independiente

74%

Draw or Independiente

47%

Winning margin

River Plate wins by 2+

27%

Independiente wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

River Plate 1+ goals

77%

River Plate 2+ goals

44%

River Plate 3+ goals

19%

Independiente 1+ goals

56%

Independiente 2+ goals

20%

Independiente 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

River Plate (draw refunded)

72%

Independiente (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Plate at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.75 · 21 matches

Independiente away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Plate attack 1.92 + Independiente defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.49

Independiente attack 0.89 + River Plate defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

River Plate scores more

53%

level

26%

Independiente scores more

21%

River Plate at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

M. Casco

River Plate · D

7.9

Match Events

17'

21'

23'

40'

46'

54'

58'

J. Cazares← M. Giménez

61'

Damián Pérez

61'

Damián Pérez

66'

J. Ostachuk← M. Cuero

67'

Enzo Díaz

68'

M. Borja← N. de la Cruz

68'

S. Rondón← L. Beltrán

80'

M. Borja

86'

Enzo Pérez

86'

J. Paradela← I. Fernández

86'

A. Palavecino← E. Pérez

90'

Miguel Borja

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RiverIndependiente

Overview

71%Possession29%

19Total Shots6

4Corners1

7Fouls13

Shots

19Total Shots6

8On Target0

9Off Target3

2Blocked3

13Inside Box3

6Outside Box3

Passing

71%Possession29%

625Total Passes250

513Accurate Passes154

82%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls13

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

4Offsides4

Match Recap: River Plate vs Independiente

River Plate beat Independiente 2-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on April 23, 2023.

Goals: E. Barco (17'), M. Borja (80').

River Plate controlled possession (71%) and registered 19 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Mâs Monumental in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.

River Plate vs Independiente — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: River Plate vs Independiente