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Independiente vs River Plate — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Independiente
Independiente
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
River Plate
River Plate
M. Suárez 90+2'
8/7/2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 12Estadio Libertadores de América

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Independiente42%
×Draw33%
River Plate25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Independiente
1.00
River Plate
0.70

Independiente creates 43% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

creates per match

Independiente
1.03
River Plate
0.72

allows per match

Independiente
0.69
River Plate
0.97

finishing

Independiente+0.17scores more
River Plate+0.03on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

River Plate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Independiente or draw
75%
Independiente or River Plate
67%
Draw or River Plate
58%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+
16%
River Plate wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals
63%
Independiente 2+ goals
26%
Independiente 3+ goals
8%
River Plate 1+ goals
50%
River Plate 2+ goals
16%
River Plate 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)
63%
River Plate (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.69 · 15 matches

River Plate away — creates 0.72, concedes 0.97 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 1.03 + River Plate defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.00

River Plate attack 0.72 + Independiente defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Independiente scores more
42%
level
33%
River Plate scores more
25%

Independiente at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
P. DíazRiver PlateRiver Plate · D
7.9

Match Events

26'
B. Zuculini← E. Pérez
30'
Pablo Solari
59'
M. Borja← L. Beltrán
59'
N. De La Cruz← R. Aliendro
62'
Agustín PalavecinoPenalty cancelled
63'
Franco Armani
71'
R. Márquez← T. Pozzo
76'
M. Suárez← E. Barco
82'
G. Hachen← L. Fernández
83'
L. González← A. Soñora
86'
J. Cazares← D. Batallini
90+2'
Juan Cazares
90+2'
M. Suárez

Possession

34%Independiente

Shots

11Independiente

Pass accuracy

46%Independiente

Statistics

IndependienteRiver
Overview
34%Possession66%
11Total Shots19
2Corners6
8Fouls8
Shots
11Total Shots19
3On Target4
5Off Target7
3Blocked8
7Inside Box11
4Outside Box8
Passing
34%Possession66%
322Total Passes637
231Accurate Passes544
72%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls8
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Independiente 0–1 River Plate

River Plate beat Independiente 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on August 7, 2022.

Goals: M. Suárez (90+2').

River Plate controlled possession (66%) and registered 19 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Libertadores de América in Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires.