Independiente 0–0 River Plate: Result & Stats

Independiente

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

River Plate

9/1/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 13Estadio Libertadores de América

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Independiente42%

×Draw33%

River Plate25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IndependienteExpected goals in this matchRiver Plate

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.70

Independiente

1.00

River Plate

0.70

Independiente creates 43% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

1.03

creates per match

0.72

0.69

allows per match

0.97

creates per match

Independiente

1.03

River Plate

0.72

allows per match

Independiente

0.69

River Plate

0.97

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Independiente+0.17scores more

River Plate+0.03on par

Total goals

Under76
Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

River Plate →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–113%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

24%76%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Independiente or draw

75%

Independiente or River Plate

67%

Draw or River Plate

58%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+

16%

River Plate wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals

63%

Independiente 2+ goals

26%

Independiente 3+ goals

8%

River Plate 1+ goals

50%

River Plate 2+ goals

16%

River Plate 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)

63%

River Plate (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.69 · 15 matches

River Plate away — creates 0.72, concedes 0.97 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 1.03 + River Plate defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.00

River Plate attack 0.72 + Independiente defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Independiente scores more

42%

level

33%

River Plate scores more

25%

Independiente at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

M. Acuña

River Plate · D

8.0

Match Events

-5'

Diego Segovia

11'

Germán Pezzella

12'

Santiago Lopez

31'

F. Colidio← M. Kranevitter

33'

33'

45+1'

54'

58'

58'

F. Mastantuono← C. Echeverri

64'

J. Fedorco← L. González

70'

A. Canelo← G. Ávalos

75'

Manuel Lanzini

78'

Paulo Díaz

87'

D. Tarzia← S. Montiel

90+3'

Diego Tarzia

90+3'

Marcos Acuña

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteRiver

Overview

29%Possession71%

7Total Shots12

0.22Expected Goals (xG)0.51

0Corners7

13Fouls15

Shots

7Total Shots12

0On Target1

4Off Target9

3Blocked2

2Inside Box8

5Outside Box4

Passing

29%Possession71%

230Total Passes552

142Accurate Passes473

62%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

0.00Goals Prevented0.00

Discipline

13Fouls15

4Yellow Cards6

1Red Cards0

2Offsides4