Independiente 0–0 River Plate: Result & Stats

Independiente

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

River Plate

8/9/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 4Estadio Libertadores de América

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Independiente42%

×Draw33%

River Plate25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IndependienteExpected goals in this matchRiver Plate

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.71

Independiente

1.02

River Plate

0.71

Independiente creates 44% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.03

creates per match

0.73

0.69

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Independiente

1.03

River Plate

0.73

allows per match

Independiente

0.69

River Plate

1.02

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Independiente+0.17scores more

River Plate+0.07on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independiente ↓

River Plate →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–113%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

52%48%2.5

25%75%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Independiente or draw

75%

Independiente or River Plate

67%

Draw or River Plate

58%

Winning margin

Independiente wins by 2+

17%

River Plate wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Independiente 1+ goals

64%

Independiente 2+ goals

27%

Independiente 3+ goals

8%

River Plate 1+ goals

51%

River Plate 2+ goals

16%

River Plate 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Independiente (draw refunded)

63%

River Plate (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independiente at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.69 · 15 matches

River Plate away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.02 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independiente attack 1.03 + River Plate defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

River Plate attack 0.73 + Independiente defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Independiente scores more

42%

level

33%

River Plate scores more

25%

Independiente at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Independiente will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

F. Armani

River Plate · G

8.7

Match Events

5'

Matías Galarza

23'

Facundo Zabala

26'

Kevin Lomónaco

43'

S. Boselli← G. Pezzella

46'

J. Quintero← S. Lencina

46'

Giuliano Galoppo← E. Perez

54'

Santiago MontielGoal cancelled

61'

Felipe Loyola

65'

D. Tarzia← W. Mazzantti

75'

P. Galdames← L. Cabral

75'

I. Pussetto← M. Abaldo

77'

J. Meza← M. Galarza

78'

Lautaro Rivero

80'

L. Godoy← F. Vera

88'

Leonardo Godoy

88'

P. Martinez← F. Colidio

90+9'

Rodrigo Fernández

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IndependienteRiver

Overview

44%Possession56%

6Total Shots5

0.58Expected Goals (xG)0.22

2Corners1

15Fouls14

Shots

6Total Shots5

3On Target1

1Off Target2

2Blocked2

3Inside Box3

3Outside Box2

Passing

44%Possession56%

336Total Passes441

236Accurate Passes325

70%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

0.67Goals Prevented0.67

Discipline

15Fouls14

5Yellow Cards2

6Offsides2

Liga Profesional Argentina: Independiente 0–0 River Plate

Independiente and River Plate drew 0-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on August 9, 2025.

River Plate controlled possession (56%) and registered 5 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio Libertadores de América in Avellaneda.

Independiente vs River Plate — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga Profesional Argentina: Independiente 0–0 River Plate