River Plate 0–2 Estudiantes L.P.: Result & Stats

River Plate

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Estudiantes L.P.

S. Ascacibar 90'

A. Castro 9'

3/1/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 8Estadio Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

River Plate53%

×Draw27%

Estudiantes L.P.19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

River PlateExpected goals in this matchEstudiantes L.P.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.72

River Plate

1.41

Estudiantes L.P.

0.72

River Plate creates 96% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 11 away

1.86

creates per match

0.70

0.74

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

River Plate

1.86

Estudiantes L.P.

0.70

allows per match

River Plate

0.74

Estudiantes L.P.

0.95

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

River Plate+0.03on par

Estudiantes L.P.+0.30scores more

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Plate ↓

Estudiantes L.P. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

River Plate or draw

81%

River Plate or Estudiantes L.P.

73%

Draw or Estudiantes L.P.

47%

Winning margin

River Plate wins by 2+

27%

Estudiantes L.P. wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

River Plate 1+ goals

76%

River Plate 2+ goals

41%

River Plate 3+ goals

17%

Estudiantes L.P. 1+ goals

51%

Estudiantes L.P. 2+ goals

16%

Estudiantes L.P. 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

River Plate (draw refunded)

74%

Estudiantes L.P. (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Plate at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Estudiantes L.P. away — creates 0.70, concedes 0.95 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Plate attack 1.86 + Estudiantes L.P. defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.41

Estudiantes L.P. attack 0.70 + River Plate defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

River Plate scores more

53%

level

27%

Estudiantes L.P. scores more

19%

River Plate at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

A. Castro

Estudiantes L.P. · M

7.7

Match Events

1'

Santiago Ascacíbar

7'

Ezequiel Piovi

9'

A. Castro↳ T. Palacios

27'

40'

44'

56'

58'

Miguel Borja← P. Martinez

61'

Santiago Arzamendia

66'

J. Burgos← C. Medina

68'

Gabriel Neves← A. Castro

69'

Gabriel Neves

71'

M. Casco← M. Acuna

71'

M. Rojas← F. Mastantuono

71'

I. Subiabre← S. Driussi

80'

G. Benedetti← S. Arzamendia

80'

83'

90+7'

90+6'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RiverEstudiantes

Overview

70%Possession30%

17Total Shots9

7Corners2

15Fouls19

Shots

17Total Shots9

3On Target5

12Off Target1

2Blocked3

9Inside Box5

8Outside Box4

Passing

70%Possession30%

498Total Passes219

409Accurate Passes135

82%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls19

3Yellow Cards7

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Match Recap: River Plate vs Estudiantes L.P.

Estudiantes L.P. beat River Plate 2-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on March 1, 2025.

Goals: A. Castro (9'), S. Ascacibar (90').

River Plate controlled possession (70%) and registered 17 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental in Buenos Aires.

River Plate vs Estudiantes L.P. — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: River Plate vs Estudiantes L.P.