River Plate 5–0 Estudiantes L.P.: Result & Stats

River Plate

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Estudiantes L.P.

M. Suárez 88'

E. Barco 85'

P. Solari 83'

M. Borja 29', 25'

10/6/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 23Estadio Monumental Antonio Vespucio Liberti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

River Plate53%

×Draw27%

Estudiantes L.P.19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

River PlateExpected goals in this matchEstudiantes L.P.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.72

River Plate

1.41

Estudiantes L.P.

0.72

River Plate creates 96% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 11 away

1.86

creates per match

0.70

0.74

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

River Plate

1.86

Estudiantes L.P.

0.70

allows per match

River Plate

0.74

Estudiantes L.P.

0.95

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

River Plate+0.03on par

Estudiantes L.P.+0.30scores more

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Plate ↓

Estudiantes L.P. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

River Plate or draw

81%

River Plate or Estudiantes L.P.

73%

Draw or Estudiantes L.P.

47%

Winning margin

River Plate wins by 2+

27%

Estudiantes L.P. wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

River Plate 1+ goals

76%

River Plate 2+ goals

41%

River Plate 3+ goals

17%

Estudiantes L.P. 1+ goals

51%

Estudiantes L.P. 2+ goals

16%

Estudiantes L.P. 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

River Plate (draw refunded)

74%

Estudiantes L.P. (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Plate at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Estudiantes L.P. away — creates 0.70, concedes 0.95 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Plate attack 1.86 + Estudiantes L.P. defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.41

Estudiantes L.P. attack 0.70 + River Plate defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

River Plate scores more

53%

level

27%

Estudiantes L.P. scores more

19%

River Plate at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

N. De La Cruz

River Plate · M

8.2

Match Events

25'

M. Borja↳ N. De La Cruz

29'

M. Borja↳ J. Quintero

31'

A. Palavecino

35'

P. Solari← L. Beltrán

39'

P. Piatti

57'

G. Piñeiro← P. Piatti

65'

M. Méndez← F. Zapiola

66'

E. Barco← J. Quintero

66'

J. Paradela← A. Palavecino

76'

T. Pochettino← E. Pérez

77'

M. Suárez← M. Borja

77'

L. Heredia← B. Rollheiser

83'

P. Solari↳ N. De La Cruz

85'

E. Barco

85'

E. Barco↳ N. De La Cruz

88'

M. Suárez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RiverEstudiantes

Overview

62%Possession38%

16Total Shots11

7Corners3

19Fouls6

Shots

16Total Shots11

7On Target4

7Off Target6

2Blocked1

9Inside Box4

7Outside Box7

Passing

62%Possession38%

578Total Passes352

505Accurate Passes268

87%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

19Fouls6

2Yellow Cards1

5Offsides2