Estudiantes L.P. 1–2 River Plate: Result & Stats

Estudiantes L.P.

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

River Plate

G. Carrillo 60'

M. Meza 9'

F. Colidio 4'

11/30/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 25Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Estudiantes L.P.45%

×Draw30%

River Plate25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Estudiantes L.P.Expected goals in this matchRiver Plate

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.83

Estudiantes L.P.

1.21

River Plate

0.83

Estudiantes L.P. creates 46% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

1.37

creates per match

0.74

0.93

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Estudiantes L.P.

1.37

River Plate

0.74

allows per match

Estudiantes L.P.

0.93

River Plate

1.05

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Estudiantes L.P.-0.14scores less

River Plate-0.03on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estudiantes L.P. ↓

River Plate →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Estudiantes L.P. or draw

75%

Estudiantes L.P. or River Plate

70%

Draw or River Plate

55%

Winning margin

Estudiantes L.P. wins by 2+

20%

River Plate wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Estudiantes L.P. 1+ goals

70%

Estudiantes L.P. 2+ goals

34%

Estudiantes L.P. 3+ goals

12%

River Plate 1+ goals

56%

River Plate 2+ goals

20%

River Plate 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Estudiantes L.P. (draw refunded)

64%

River Plate (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estudiantes L.P. at home — creates 1.37, concedes 0.93 · 13 matches

River Plate away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.05 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estudiantes L.P. attack 1.37 + River Plate defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.21

River Plate attack 0.74 + Estudiantes L.P. defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Estudiantes L.P. scores more

45%

level

30%

River Plate scores more

25%

Estudiantes L.P. at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Estudiantes L.P. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

F. Armani

River Plate · G

9.9

Match Events

4'

F. Colidio↳ M. Meza

9'

M. Meza↳ F. Colidio

29'

T. PalaciosGoal Disallowed - handball

35'

S. Ascacibar

46'

G. Carrillo← J. Sosa

60'

G. Carrillo↳ E. Meza

61'

I. Fernández← M. Lanzini

62'

G. Martínez← M. Meza

62'

F. Mastantuono← P. Solari

70'

M. Borja← F. Colidio

71'

R. Aliendro← S. Simón

76'

F. Pérez Escudero← T. Palacios

85'

G. Benedetti← S. Arzamendia

86'

L. Giménez← A. Castillo Manyoma

89'

90'

90+3'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EstudiantesRiver

Overview

57%Possession43%

25Total Shots7

2.43Expected Goals (xG)0.99

4Corners3

9Fouls20

Shots

25Total Shots7

11On Target4

10Off Target3

4Blocked0

10Inside Box6

15Outside Box1

Passing

57%Possession43%

443Total Passes347

336Accurate Passes243

76%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves10

1.08Goals Prevented1.08

Discipline

9Fouls20

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1