River Plate 3–1 Estudiantes L.P.: Result & Stats

River Plate

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Estudiantes L.P.

E. Barco 31' (pen)

N. de la Cruz 18'

L. Beltrán 2'

M. Méndez 67'

7/15/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 25Estadio Mâs Monumental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

River Plate53%

×Draw27%

Estudiantes L.P.19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

River PlateExpected goals in this matchEstudiantes L.P.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.72

River Plate

1.41

Estudiantes L.P.

0.72

River Plate creates 96% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 11 away

1.86

creates per match

0.70

0.74

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

River Plate

1.86

Estudiantes L.P.

0.70

allows per match

River Plate

0.74

Estudiantes L.P.

0.95

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

River Plate+0.03on par

Estudiantes L.P.+0.30scores more

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Plate ↓

Estudiantes L.P. →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

River Plate or draw

81%

River Plate or Estudiantes L.P.

73%

Draw or Estudiantes L.P.

47%

Winning margin

River Plate wins by 2+

27%

Estudiantes L.P. wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

River Plate 1+ goals

76%

River Plate 2+ goals

41%

River Plate 3+ goals

17%

Estudiantes L.P. 1+ goals

51%

Estudiantes L.P. 2+ goals

16%

Estudiantes L.P. 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

River Plate (draw refunded)

74%

Estudiantes L.P. (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Plate at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

Estudiantes L.P. away — creates 0.70, concedes 0.95 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Plate attack 1.86 + Estudiantes L.P. defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.41

Estudiantes L.P. attack 0.70 + River Plate defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

River Plate scores more

53%

level

27%

Estudiantes L.P. scores more

19%

River Plate at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "River Plate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

P. Díaz

River Plate · D

8.3

Match Events

2'

L. Beltrán↳ L. González

18'

N. de la Cruz

31'

E. BarcoPenalty

38'

Eros Mancuso

46'

M. Moreno← G. Carrillo

46'

M. Méndez← B. Rollheiser

47'

Nacho Fernández

57'

P. Solari← I. Fernández

57'

M. Kranevitter← E. Pérez

59'

Fernando Zuqui

66'

A. Palavecino← N. de la Cruz

67'

M. Borja← L. Beltrán

67'

M. Méndez↳ L. Godoy

68'

J. Guasone← L. Godoy

68'

J. Sosa← J. Rodríguez

78'

F. Zapiola← N. Fernández

81'

R. Rojas← L. González

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RiverEstudiantes

Overview

58%Possession42%

11Total Shots22

2Corners8

7Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots22

5On Target2

3Off Target8

3Blocked12

7Inside Box12

4Outside Box10

Passing

58%Possession42%

558Total Passes379

481Accurate Passes297

86%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

7Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2