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Ried vs Lask Linz — Bundesliga 2018

Ried
Ried
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lask Linz
Lask Linz
A. van Wyk 35'
M. Usor 90' (pen)
2/14/2026BundesligaBundesliga · Round 19Innviertel Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Ried37%
×Draw23%
Lask Linz40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ried
1.61
Lask Linz
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

creates per match

Ried
1.64
Lask Linz
1.90

allows per match

Ried
1.48
Lask Linz
1.58

finishing

Ried+0.09on par
Lask Linz+0.27scores more

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ried ↓

Lask Linz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Ried or draw
60%
Ried or Lask Linz
77%
Draw or Lask Linz
63%

Winning margin

Ried wins by 2+
18%
Lask Linz wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Ried 1+ goals
80%
Ried 2+ goals
48%
Ried 3+ goals
22%
Lask Linz 1+ goals
82%
Lask Linz 2+ goals
50%
Lask Linz 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Ried (draw refunded)
48%
Lask Linz (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ried at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.48 · 11 matches

Lask Linz away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ried attack 1.64 + Lask Linz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.61

Lask Linz attack 1.90 + Ried defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ried scores more
37%
level
23%
Lask Linz scores more
40%

Lask Linz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lask Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
Y. MaartRiedRied · M
7.9

Match Events

22'
Nicolas Bajlicz
34'
Melayro Bogarde
35'
A. van Wyk
74'
C. Lang← S. Horvath
74'
M. Usor← S. Adeniran
77'
P. Kiedl← K. Mutandwa
77'
J. Nasrawe← N. Bajlicz
77'
E. E. Aisowieren← A. van Wyk
77'
L. Kacavenda← K. Danek
78'
Oliver Steurer
78'
Jonas Mayer
83'
Lukas Kačavenda
90+12'
Martin Rasner
90+12'
Xavier Mbuyamba
90+10'
Lukas KačavendaPenalty confirmed
90'
P. Pomer← F. Rossdorfer
90'
M. Rasner← J. Mayer
90'
M. UsorPenalty

Possession

40%Ried

Shots

7Ried

Pass accuracy

45%Ried

Statistics

RiedLask
Overview
40%Possession60%
7Total Shots24
1.37Expected Goals (xG)2.85
2Corners7
17Fouls9
Shots
7Total Shots24
4On Target7
2Off Target9
1Blocked8
5Inside Box16
2Outside Box8
Passing
40%Possession60%
276Total Passes395
187Accurate Passes325
68%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
6Saves3
0.05Goals Prevented0.05
Discipline
17Fouls9
4Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Ried vs Lask Linz

Ried and Lask Linz drew 1-1 in Bundesliga on February 14, 2026.

Goals: A. van Wyk (35'), M. Usor (90' pen).

Lask Linz controlled possession (60%) and registered 24 shots to 7.

The match was played at Innviertel Arena in Ried.