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Lask Linz vs Ried — Bundesliga 2018

Lask Linz
Lask Linz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ried
Ried
K. Nakamura 45+2'
P. Pomer 77'
9/4/2022BundesligaBundesliga · Round 7Raiffeisen Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Lask Linz54%
×Draw23%
Ried23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lask Linz
1.84
Ried
1.11

Lask Linz creates 66% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Lask Linz
2.04
Ried
1.11

allows per match

Lask Linz
1.11
Ried
1.65

finishing

Lask Linz-0.31scores less
Ried-0.49scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lask Linz ↓

Ried →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lask Linz or draw
77%
Lask Linz or Ried
77%
Draw or Ried
46%

Winning margin

Lask Linz wins by 2+
31%
Ried wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lask Linz 1+ goals
84%
Lask Linz 2+ goals
55%
Lask Linz 3+ goals
28%
Ried 1+ goals
67%
Ried 2+ goals
30%
Ried 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lask Linz (draw refunded)
70%
Ried (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lask Linz at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.11 · 11 matches

Ried away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.65 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lask Linz attack 2.04 + Ried defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.84

Ried attack 1.11 + Lask Linz defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lask Linz scores more
54%
level
23%
Ried scores more
23%

Lask Linz at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lask Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
M. MartinRiedRied · M
8.2

Match Events

9'
Peter MichorlCard upgrade
10'
Marin Ljubičić
45+2'
K. Nakamura
58'
Michael Martin
65'
David Ungar
67'
F. Flecker← T. Goiginger
67'
E. Koulouris← R. Žulj
72'
Á. Kecskés← J. Boller
73'
Leo Mikić
75'
L. Kronberger← J. Wießmeier
77'
P. Pomer↳ M. Martin
78'
S. Chabbi← S. Nutz
81'
Marcel Ziegl
86'
S. Horvath← K. Nakamura
86'
O. Kragl← L. Mikić
87'
Luca Kronberger
90+5'
Peter Michorl

Possession

39%Lask

Shots

15Lask

Pass accuracy

48%Lask

Statistics

LaskRied
Overview
39%Possession61%
15Total Shots11
6Corners5
10Fouls16
Shots
15Total Shots11
4On Target7
7Off Target3
4Blocked1
6Inside Box10
9Outside Box1
Passing
39%Possession61%
319Total Passes518
251Accurate Passes447
79%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
6Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls16
1Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards1
3Offsides3

Match Recap: Lask Linz vs Ried

Lask Linz and Ried drew 1-1 in Bundesliga on September 4, 2022.

Goals: K. Nakamura (45+2'), P. Pomer (77').

Ried controlled possession (61%) and registered 11 shots to 15.

The match was played at Raiffeisen Arena in Pasching.