Lask Linz 1–3 Ried: Result & Stats | Bundesliga

Lask Linz

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Ried

Alemao 65'

P. Kiedl 52'

M. Grosse 41', 39' (pen)

8/30/2025

Bundesliga · Round 5Raiffeisen Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Lask Linz54%

×Draw23%

Ried23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lask LinzExpected goals in this matchRied

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.11

Lask Linz

1.84

Ried

1.11

Lask Linz creates 66% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

2.04

creates per match

1.11

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Lask Linz

2.04

Ried

1.11

allows per match

Lask Linz

1.11

Ried

1.65

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

-0.49scores less than expected

finishing

Lask Linz-0.31scores less

Ried-0.49scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lask Linz ↓

Ried →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Lask Linz or draw

77%

Lask Linz or Ried

77%

Draw or Ried

46%

Winning margin

Lask Linz wins by 2+

31%

Ried wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Lask Linz 1+ goals

84%

Lask Linz 2+ goals

55%

Lask Linz 3+ goals

28%

Ried 1+ goals

67%

Ried 2+ goals

30%

Ried 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Lask Linz (draw refunded)

70%

Ried (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lask Linz at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.11 · 11 matches

Ried away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.65 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lask Linz attack 2.04 + Ried defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.84

Ried attack 1.11 + Lask Linz defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lask Linz scores more

54%

level

23%

Ried scores more

23%

Lask Linz at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lask Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Grosse

Ried · F

8.6

Match Events

2'

Kingstone Mutandwa

37'

Mark GroßePenalty confirmed

39'

M. GrossePenalty

41'

M. Grosse

42'

Lukas Kačavenda

45+2'

Kasper Jørgensen

46'

A. van Wyk← K. Mutandwa

48'

52'

57'

59'

59'

63'

63'

C. Lang← L. Kacavenda

65'

Alemao↳ K. Danek

70'

F. Rossdorfer← A. Bajic

70'

J. Boguo← P. Kiedl

85'

C. Wernitznig← Y. Maart

88'

F. Flecker← K. P. Molgaard Jorgensen

88'

L. Pintor← A. Smakaj

90+1'

Emmanuel Michael

90'

Valon Berisha

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LaskRied

Overview

57%Possession43%

21Total Shots13

4Corners4

13Fouls11

Shots

21Total Shots13

4On Target6

10Off Target4

7Blocked3

15Inside Box8

6Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

387Total Passes290

323Accurate Passes211

83%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls11

6Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Match Recap: Lask Linz vs Ried

Ried beat Lask Linz 3-1 in Bundesliga on August 30, 2025.

Goals: M. Grosse (39' pen, 41'), P. Kiedl (52'), Alemao (65').

Lask Linz controlled possession (57%) and registered 21 shots to 13.

The match was played at Raiffeisen Arena in Linz.

Lask Linz vs Ried — Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Lask Linz vs Ried