Ried 1–1 Lask Linz: Result & Stats | Bundesliga

Ried

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lask Linz

C. Lang 45+1' (pen)

K. Nakamura 90'

2/18/2023

Bundesliga · Round 18josko ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Ried37%

×Draw23%

Lask Linz40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RiedExpected goals in this matchLask Linz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.69

Ried

1.61

Lask Linz

1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

1.64

creates per match

1.90

1.48

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Ried

1.64

Lask Linz

1.90

allows per match

Ried

1.48

Lask Linz

1.58

+0.09on par

finishing

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

Ried+0.09on par

Lask Linz+0.27scores more

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ried ↓

Lask Linz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Ried or draw

60%

Ried or Lask Linz

77%

Draw or Lask Linz

63%

Winning margin

Ried wins by 2+

18%

Lask Linz wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Ried 1+ goals

80%

Ried 2+ goals

48%

Ried 3+ goals

22%

Lask Linz 1+ goals

82%

Lask Linz 2+ goals

50%

Lask Linz 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Ried (draw refunded)

48%

Lask Linz (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ried at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.48 · 11 matches

Lask Linz away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ried attack 1.64 + Lask Linz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.61

Lask Linz attack 1.90 + Ried defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ried scores more

37%

level

23%

Lask Linz scores more

40%

Lask Linz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lask Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

A. Schlager

Lask Linz · G

8.3

Match Events

20'

Robert ŽuljPenalty cancelled

45+4'

45+5'

45+4'

45'

45+1'

C. LangPenalty

46'

P. Michorl← M. Talovierov

46'

Á. Kecskés← R. Žulj

53'

David Ungar

63'

M. Usor← T. Goiginger

64'

I. Mustapha← M. Ljubičić

69'

Philipp Ziereis

74'

Denizcan Cosgun

77'

C. Monschein← C. Lang

83'

87'

89'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RiedLask

Overview

31%Possession69%

16Total Shots10

3Corners4

15Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots10

9On Target2

4Off Target1

3Blocked7

11Inside Box8

5Outside Box2

Passing

31%Possession69%

230Total Passes527

135Accurate Passes412

59%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

Discipline

15Fouls14

4Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1

Bundesliga: Ried 1–1 Lask Linz

Ried and Lask Linz drew 1-1 in Bundesliga on February 18, 2023.

Goals: C. Lang (45+1' pen), K. Nakamura (90').

Lask Linz controlled possession (69%) and registered 10 shots to 16.

The match was played at josko ARENA in Ried Im Innkreis.

Ried vs Lask Linz — Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Bundesliga: Ried 1–1 Lask Linz