Richards Bay 1–2 Marumo Gallants: Result & Stats

Richards Bay

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Marumo Gallants

L. Mahala 55'

S. Mbhele 90'

B. Mabuza 3'

8/9/2025

Premier Soccer League · Round 1Umhlathuze Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Richards Bay45%

×Draw31%

Marumo Gallants24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Richards BayExpected goals in this matchMarumo Gallants

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.77

Richards Bay

1.17

Marumo Gallants

0.77

Richards Bay creates 52% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 76 away

0.89

creates per match

0.72

0.81

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Richards Bay

0.89

Marumo Gallants

0.72

allows per match

Richards Bay

0.81

Marumo Gallants

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Richards Bay+0.00on par

Marumo Gallants+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Richards Bay ↓

Marumo Gallants →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Richards Bay or draw

76%

Richards Bay or Marumo Gallants

69%

Draw or Marumo Gallants

55%

Winning margin

Richards Bay wins by 2+

20%

Marumo Gallants wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Richards Bay 1+ goals

69%

Richards Bay 2+ goals

33%

Richards Bay 3+ goals

11%

Marumo Gallants 1+ goals

54%

Marumo Gallants 2+ goals

18%

Marumo Gallants 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Richards Bay (draw refunded)

65%

Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Richards Bay at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.81 · 62 matches

Marumo Gallants away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Richards Bay attack 0.89 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.17

Marumo Gallants attack 0.72 + Richards Bay defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Richards Bay scores more

45%

level

31%

Marumo Gallants scores more

24%

Richards Bay at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Richards Bay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39

B. Mabuza

Marumo Gallants · F

8.5

Match Events

3'

B. Mabuza↳ S. Sithole

39'

Edgar Manaka

45+1'

Mfundo Thikazi

46'

L. Mahala← M. Thikazi

55'

L. Mahala↳ S. Nzama

65'

T. Ndelu← S. Nzama

65'

S. Mbhele← M. Khumalo

75'

M. Mpambaniso← D. Msendami

75'

J. Clifford← B. Mabuza

79'

W. Ngema← M. Mthembu

85'

L. Mtshali← G. Mhango

85'

K. Mhlongo← S. Sithole

90'

S. Mbhele

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RichardsMarumo

Overview

66%Possession34%

17Total Shots10

7Corners3

13Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots10

4On Target4

9Off Target2

4Blocked4

10Inside Box1

7Outside Box9

Passing

66%Possession34%

524Total Passes282

433Accurate Passes185

83%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls10

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0