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Marumo Gallants vs Richards Bay — Premier Soccer League 2018

Marumo Gallants
Marumo Gallants
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Richards Bay
Richards Bay
B. Mabuza 60'
M. Sikhosana 10' (OG)
5/9/2026Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 28Thohoyandou Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Marumo Gallants40%
×Draw32%
Richards Bay28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marumo Gallants
1.04
Richards Bay
0.81

Marumo Gallants creates 28% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 63 away

creates per match

Marumo Gallants
0.86
Richards Bay
0.62

allows per match

Marumo Gallants
1.01
Richards Bay
1.22

finishing

Marumo Gallants+0.00on par
Richards Bay+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marumo Gallants ↓

Richards Bay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Marumo Gallants or draw
72%
Marumo Gallants or Richards Bay
68%
Draw or Richards Bay
60%

Winning margin

Marumo Gallants wins by 2+
16%
Richards Bay wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Marumo Gallants 1+ goals
65%
Marumo Gallants 2+ goals
28%
Marumo Gallants 3+ goals
9%
Richards Bay 1+ goals
56%
Richards Bay 2+ goals
19%
Richards Bay 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)
59%
Richards Bay (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marumo Gallants at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Richards Bay away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.22 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marumo Gallants attack 0.86 + Richards Bay defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.04

Richards Bay attack 0.62 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Marumo Gallants scores more
40%
level
32%
Richards Bay scores more
28%

Marumo Gallants at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Marumo Gallants will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

39
B. MabuzaMarumo GallantsMarumo Gallants · M
7.9

Match Events

10'
M. SikhosanaOwn goal
30'
Diala Manaka
30'
K. Sithole← S. Sithole
30'
E. Khumalo← K. Mhlongo
60'
B. Mabuza↳ K. Sithole
69'
L. Mahala← N. Bomelo
72'
T. Motloung← B. Mabuza
78'
A. Mdunge← T. Gumede

Possession

51%Marumo

Shots

14Marumo

Pass accuracy

51%Marumo

Statistics

MarumoRichards
Overview
51%Possession49%
14Total Shots9
7Corners5
10Fouls15
Shots
14Total Shots9
2On Target2
6Off Target5
6Blocked2
5Inside Box5
9Outside Box4
Passing
51%Possession49%
387Total Passes363
307Accurate Passes281
79%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls15
1Yellow Cards0
3Offsides3

Premier Soccer League: Marumo Gallants 1–1 Richards Bay

Marumo Gallants and Richards Bay drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on May 9, 2026.

Goals: M. Sikhosana (10' o.g.), B. Mabuza (60').

Marumo Gallants controlled possession (51%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at Thohoyandou Stadium in Thohoyandou.