Marumo Gallants 0–2 Richards Bay: Result & Stats

Marumo Gallants

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Richards Bay

T. Mabua 86'

S. Barns 80'

1/14/2023

Premier Soccer League · Round 13Royal Bafokeng Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Marumo Gallants40%

×Draw32%

Richards Bay28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Marumo GallantsExpected goals in this matchRichards Bay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.81

Marumo Gallants

1.04

Richards Bay

0.81

Marumo Gallants creates 28% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 63 away

0.86

creates per match

0.62

1.01

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Marumo Gallants

0.86

Richards Bay

0.62

allows per match

Marumo Gallants

1.01

Richards Bay

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marumo Gallants+0.00on par

Richards Bay+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marumo Gallants ↓

Richards Bay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Marumo Gallants or draw

72%

Marumo Gallants or Richards Bay

68%

Draw or Richards Bay

60%

Winning margin

Marumo Gallants wins by 2+

16%

Richards Bay wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Marumo Gallants 1+ goals

65%

Marumo Gallants 2+ goals

28%

Marumo Gallants 3+ goals

9%

Richards Bay 1+ goals

56%

Richards Bay 2+ goals

19%

Richards Bay 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)

59%

Richards Bay (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marumo Gallants at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Richards Bay away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.22 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marumo Gallants attack 0.86 + Richards Bay defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.04

Richards Bay attack 0.62 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Marumo Gallants scores more

40%

level

32%

Richards Bay scores more

28%

Marumo Gallants at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Marumo Gallants will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

J. Malongoane← S. Sibeko

46'

A. Mabaso← N. Zungu

75'

Y. Mbuthuma← S. Ntsundwana

75'

O. Ochieng← M. Mthembu

80'

S. Barns

83'

L. Mabuya← S. Msani

86'

T. Mabua

88'

B. Bobete← K. Otladisa

90+2'

H. Majadibodu← N. Nyauza

Statistics

MarumoRichards

Overview

0Corners0

Discipline

0Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0