Richards Bay 2–1 Marumo Gallants: Result & Stats

Richards Bay

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Marumo Gallants

Ntlonelo Bomelo 88'

Justice Figuareido 86'

Sekela Sithole 51'

2/4/2025

Premier Soccer League · Round 12King Goodwill Zwelithini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Richards Bay45%

×Draw31%

Marumo Gallants24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Richards BayExpected goals in this matchMarumo Gallants

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.77

Richards Bay

1.17

Marumo Gallants

0.77

Richards Bay creates 52% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 76 away

0.89

creates per match

0.72

0.81

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Richards Bay

0.89

Marumo Gallants

0.72

allows per match

Richards Bay

0.81

Marumo Gallants

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Richards Bay+0.00on par

Marumo Gallants+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Richards Bay ↓

Marumo Gallants →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Richards Bay or draw

76%

Richards Bay or Marumo Gallants

69%

Draw or Marumo Gallants

55%

Winning margin

Richards Bay wins by 2+

20%

Marumo Gallants wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Richards Bay 1+ goals

69%

Richards Bay 2+ goals

33%

Richards Bay 3+ goals

11%

Marumo Gallants 1+ goals

54%

Marumo Gallants 2+ goals

18%

Marumo Gallants 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Richards Bay (draw refunded)

65%

Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Richards Bay at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.81 · 62 matches

Marumo Gallants away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Richards Bay attack 0.89 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.17

Marumo Gallants attack 0.72 + Richards Bay defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Richards Bay scores more

45%

level

31%

Marumo Gallants scores more

24%

Richards Bay at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Richards Bay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45

Somila Ntsundwana

Richards Bay · F

7.5

Match Events

14'

Romario Dlamini← Lwandile Sandile Mabuya

28'

Yanela Mbuthuma

45+2'

Nkosikhona Ndaba

46'

Somila Ntsundwana← Thulani Gumede

50'

Mpho Chabatsane

51'

Sekela Sithole↳ Kamohelo Mahlatsi

53'

Edson Khumalo

58'

Gabadinho Mhango← Sede Junior Dion

59'

Yanela Mbuthuma

59'

Yanela Mbuthuma

68'

Kamohelo Mahlatsi

70'

Lebohang Mabotja← Mpho Chabatsane

70'

Mpambaniso Monde← Thapelo Mokobodi

70'

Khumbulani Ncube← Edson Khumalo

78'

Ntlonelo Bomelo← Thato Mohlamme

83'

Phathutshedzo Nange← Sekela Sithole

86'

Justice Figuareido

88'

Ntlonelo Bomelo↳ Somila Ntsundwana

90'

Fezile Gcaba← Justice Figuareido

90'

Langelihle Mhlongo← Moses Mthembu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RichardsMarumo

Overview

39%Possession61%

12Total Shots6

3Corners1

14Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots6

5On Target2

4Off Target3

3Blocked1

10Inside Box2

2Outside Box4

Passing

39%Possession61%

317Total Passes520

215Accurate Passes435

68%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls17

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

2Offsides3