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Richards Bay vs Marumo Gallants — Premier Soccer League 2018

Richards Bay
Richards Bay
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Marumo Gallants
Marumo Gallants
8/9/2022Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 1King Goodwill Zwelithini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Richards Bay45%
×Draw31%
Marumo Gallants24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Richards Bay
1.17
Marumo Gallants
0.77

Richards Bay creates 52% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 76 away

creates per match

Richards Bay
0.89
Marumo Gallants
0.72

allows per match

Richards Bay
0.81
Marumo Gallants
1.45

finishing

Richards Bay+0.00on par
Marumo Gallants+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Richards Bay ↓

Marumo Gallants →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Richards Bay or draw
76%
Richards Bay or Marumo Gallants
69%
Draw or Marumo Gallants
55%

Winning margin

Richards Bay wins by 2+
20%
Marumo Gallants wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Richards Bay 1+ goals
69%
Richards Bay 2+ goals
33%
Richards Bay 3+ goals
11%
Marumo Gallants 1+ goals
54%
Marumo Gallants 2+ goals
18%
Marumo Gallants 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Richards Bay (draw refunded)
65%
Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Richards Bay at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.81 · 62 matches

Marumo Gallants away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Richards Bay attack 0.89 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.17

Marumo Gallants attack 0.72 + Richards Bay defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Richards Bay scores more
45%
level
31%
Marumo Gallants scores more
24%

Richards Bay at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Richards Bay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
N. Mdabuka← M. Mthembu
46'
L. Nku← S. Sibeko
46'
C. Ngema← M. Mphambaniso
57'
Celimpilo Ngema
66'
S. Ncanana← S. Mcineka
66'
S. Msani← K. Makateng
74'
N. Zungu← M. Mathebula
75'
Y. Mbuthuma← S. Ntsundwana
75'
J. Malongoane← A. Ramphela
83'
Tshepo Wilson Mabua
87'
L. Koapeng← S. Dion
90+1'
Lebohang Mabotja

Possession

36%Richards

Shots

6Richards

Statistics

RichardsMarumo
Overview
36%Possession64%
6Total Shots4
4Corners7
14Fouls19
Shots
6Total Shots4
5On Target1
1Off Target3
Passing
36%Possession64%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
14Fouls19
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Richards Bay vs Marumo Gallants

Richards Bay and Marumo Gallants drew 0-0 in Premier Soccer League on August 9, 2022.

Marumo Gallants controlled possession (64%) and registered 4 shots to 6.

The match was played at King Goodwill Zwelithini Stadium in Durban, KN.